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Prediction markets for More

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.27%chance

195448056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14957

3690

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.05%chance

165276698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148701

67433

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

148116016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12247

8165

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

23593419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

550

Will congestion pricing in NY be stopped for more than 30 days in the next year?

Jan 21, 3:23 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

15.71%chance

2948660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19025

6471

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65%chance

17435675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

8825

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Mar 13, 5:29 PMMar 14, 2:59 PM

56.91%chance

16926593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12289

5251

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2419

413

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

167337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14113

7510

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

Will Michael Saylor be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Mar 4, 7:47 PMFeb 5, 4:59 AM

17.84%chance

182443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

911

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