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Mustafa News

Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026?

Nov 27, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121116

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

David Reich

Jensen Huang

Dylan Patel (as guest)

Ajeya Cotra

Dwarkesh Patel (see note)

Nicholas Carlini

Dean Ball

Dean Spears

Alec Radford

Jack Clark

Gary Marcus

Joscha Bach

Holden Karnofsky

Yann LeCun

Sundar Pichai

Satya Nadella

Sarah Paine

Demis Hassabis

Amanda Askell

Tyler Cowen

Daniel Kokotajlo

Sam Altman

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Ilya Sutskever

Ian Morris

Jeff Bezos

Michael Dell

Scott Alexander

Joe Henrich

Nick Bostrom

roon

Noam Brown

Hans Moravec

Paul J Werbos

Nate Soares

Mark Zuckerberg

Matt Levine

Janus @repligate

Zvi Mowshowitz

François Chollet

Michael Levin

Helen Toner

Joe Carlsmith

Tamay Besiroglu

Mira Murati

Doris Taylor

Carl Shulman

Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)

Mustafa Suleyman

Tanner Greer

Dan Hendrycks

Robert Caro

Andrej Karpathy

George Hotz

Barack Obama

Bill Gates

Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

Bill Clinton

100

100

100

100

99

41

39

33

31

28

27

27

26

26

25

25

25

24

24

23

23

23

22

22

22

22

20

20

20

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

16

16

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

14

14

13

13

12

10

9

9

9

8

5

4

4

Will Mustafa ever meet someone at his ACX meetups?

Oct 15, 10:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.08%chance

12571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

832

Brazil extradites Mustafa Göktepe to Turkey before 2027?

May 2, 2:19 PMDec 31, 3:13 PM

2.44%chance

7560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

632

16

An American quickly has at least 30 children in a 2 year interval, anytime through 2028

Sep 26, 8:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.2%chance

13503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

967

Someone has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

Sep 26, 8:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

95.68%chance

4495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

437

13

Will a commercial non-stop passenger flight operate from a UK airport to Syria before January 1, 2027?

Jul 29, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.18%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

AI equivalent of IPCC before 2027?

Jan 12, 9:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.04%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

108

AI equivalent of IPCC before 2030?

Jan 12, 9:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.9%chance

690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

95

An American quickly has at least 160 children in a 4 year interval, anytime through 2036

Sep 26, 8:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.84%chance

387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

54

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

An American quickly has at least 50 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

Sep 26, 8:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

104

An American quickly has at least 90 children in a 3 year interval, anytime through 2031

Sep 26, 8:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

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