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Prediction markets for Nakamoto
OptionProbability
30
4
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
43
21
14
6
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM
10.57%chance
375756
OptionVotes
2909
344
OptionProbability
38
27
10
10
8
5
2
1
OptionVotes
3382
766
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
44.56%chance
553780
OptionVotes
1235
297
OptionVotes
1414
622
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Feb 10, 5:32 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
31.77%chance
271781
OptionVotes
208
182
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
46.94%chance
291547
OptionVotes
1246
271
OptionVotes
1069
797
OptionVotes
374
27
Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?
Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.98%chance
15250
OptionVotes
1152
946