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Prediction markets for Nakamoto
OptionProbability
10
10
5
5
5
1
OptionProbability
30
19
15
14
4
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
3382
766
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
23.16%chance
422933
OptionVotes
1053
676
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM
10.13%chance
212792
OptionVotes
2978
336
OptionVotes
1295
701
OptionVotes
1902
909
Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?
Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
20.26%chance
241232
OptionVotes
1019
772
OptionVotes
1290
907
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Nov 14, 9:08 AMJan 8, 10:59 PM
9.43%chance
12911
OptionVotes
310
32
OptionVotes
290
167
Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?
Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.98%chance
15250
OptionVotes
1152
946