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Prediction markets for Nat

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000

Mar 8, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.94%chance

117393087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

1435

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.66%chance

249175608

OptionProbability

YES

NO

4766

4764

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

7.58%chance

4746393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34938

2866

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.01%chance

4836861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36421

2746

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

9.16%chance

3935254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31485

3176

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14460

7017

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

5513610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20519

7234

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

218159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10346

9625

Will @Nat write a proper bio?

Apr 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.89%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?

Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Japan

South Korea

Philippines

Other

25

25

25

25

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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