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Prediction markets for Nathan

Nathan Stock (Permanent)

Nov 12, 4:29 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

7334893

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1402

1057

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.82%chance

618579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4106

1481

Will Nathan Fielder die in an airplane or helicopter crash?

May 26, 9:19 PMMay 27, 9:19 PM

1.38%chance

111551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

845

12

Which of these are major culture war topics in 2029? (Inspired by Nathan Young)

Mar 11, 4:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10264

OptionProbability

AI (including AI safety, AI ethics, e/acc)

Culture war. Culture war never changes. (I.E. it's still the same main stuff as in March 2024)

Artificial wombs

Eugenics

Polyamory

Child labor

66

45

31

25

24

24

Will Destiny's son Nathan finish college?

May 2, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

8173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

49

Will at least 2 of Myself, Nathan young and Stefan Schubert be gainfully employed on Jan 1st 2035?

Jan 20, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.26%chance

275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

975

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Lada Nuzhna?

Aug 28, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Yoyo Yuan?

Aug 28, 7:53 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Bryan Johnson

Aug 28, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Sam Altman?

Aug 28, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Genesis Lung?

Aug 28, 7:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Nathan Cheng outlive Jose Luis Ricon (JLR)

Aug 28, 7:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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