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Prediction markets for Neumann

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

970

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18529237

OptionProbability

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

Other

Alexander Grothendieck

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Von Neumann

Ramanujan

Newton

Kurt Gödel

Terry Tao

David Hilbert

Riemann

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

46

20

16

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.61%chance

93938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4549

220

Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Sep 18, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.81%chance

152751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

793

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will 20 or more clones of John von Neumann exist by 2100?

Feb 20, 7:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

151128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

276

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.42%chance

17605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

874

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

Jan 29, 2:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.29%chance

20449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

919

By 2050, will any world leader have advocated for "utilitarian Von Neumann machines"?

Jun 19, 1:14 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.54%chance

7132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

74

Will Andreessen Horowitz profit off of their investment in Flow (Adam Neumann)?

Jul 13, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.87%chance

562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

103

What will be the next major event for Flow?

Jan 23, 1:12 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

553

OptionProbability

None of these by 2030

Bankruptcy

Purchase by another company

IPO

42

39

10

9

Will John von Neumann's grave be exhumed (for his DNA) by EOY 2033?

Dec 25, 10:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.43%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

51

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