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Prediction markets for New

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.37%chance

455133008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3461

2666

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.48%chance

326121099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

973

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7757100

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

15

5

0

0

0

0

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

2429072

OptionProbability

National coalition

Labour coalition

No government formed

Other

51

46

2

2

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3824152

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not before 2030

2026

2025 or earlier

39

30

18

7

6

1

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

Who will win the new race to the Moon?

Aug 12, 1:04 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8115039

OptionProbability

USA

China

Russia

India

Europe

Other

56

43

0

0

0

0

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3111948

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

38

24

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.29%chance

149293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12637

6684

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.56%chance

298424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8332

4125

US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)

Sep 22, 4:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

49.03%chance

3220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5240

4950

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