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Prediction markets for New

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

28.32%chance

152161499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

686

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.08%chance

449130846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3222

2880

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52%chance

320111902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

972

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756998

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

81

15

4

0

0

0

0

Will the New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 Super Bowl LX

Feb 10, 8:43 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

33%chance

12843935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28643

25988

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3621650

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

Not before 2030

2025 or earlier

39

26

17

9

8

1

What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMOct 16, 11:59 PM

812404

OptionProbability

National coalition

Labour coalition

No government formed

Other

50

40

6

5

China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?

Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

35.01%chance

226975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13624

7340

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36%chance

125493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10577

9472

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.38%chance

195302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7655

4278

US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)

Sep 22, 4:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

48.53%chance

2170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5190

5003

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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