OptionProbability
Elon Musk
David Reich
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Dean Spears
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Nicholas Carlini
Dean Ball
Yann LeCun
Alec Radford
Jack Clark
Gary Marcus
Joscha Bach
Holden Karnofsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Amanda Askell
Sundar Pichai
Satya Nadella
Sam Altman
Ilya Sutskever
Sarah Paine
Demis Hassabis
Tyler Cowen
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ian Morris
Scott Alexander
Jeff Bezos
Nick Bostrom
Michael Dell
Joe Henrich
roon
Ajeya Cotra
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Paul J Werbos
Nate Soares
Mark Zuckerberg
Matt Levine
Janus @repligate
Zvi Mowshowitz
François Chollet
Michael Levin
Helen Toner
Joe Carlsmith
Tamay Besiroglu
Mira Murati
Mustafa Suleyman
Doris Taylor
Carl Shulman
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Tanner Greer
Dan Hendrycks
Robert Caro
Andrej Karpathy
George Hotz
Barack Obama
Bill Gates
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Kamala Harris
Bill Clinton
Donald Trump
100
42
41
39
34
30
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
10
9
8
7
6
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
112
89