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Nielsen News

When will the US tariffs on China first drop to ≤50% again for a month?

Apr 28, 7:11 AMFeb 1, 7:51 AM

1916385

OptionProbability

December 2025, or before

November 2025, or before

October 2025, or before

September 2025, or before

August 2025, or before

July 2025, or before

April 2025

May 2025, or before

June 2025, or before

74

71

66

59

50

5

0

0

0

Which well-known scientist will Eliezer Yudkowsky have a long recorded conversation with about AI risk, before 2026?

Nov 12, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

244216

OptionProbability

Timothy Gowers

Michael Nielsen

Geoffrey Hinton

Daniel Hillis

Steven Pinker

Andrej Karpathy

Noam Shazeer

David Deutsch

François Chollet

Sean Carroll

George Hotz

Dario Amodei

Yann LeCun

Ben Goertzel

Neil deGrasse Tyson

23

21

20

20

16

15

11

10

10

10

8

7

7

6

6

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.1%chance

233895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

934

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Jun 26, 6:03 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

87%chance

202595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2587

387

Which team will win the Premier League 2025/26 season?

Aug 1, 5:20 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

91084

OptionProbability

Liverpool

Arsenal

Manchester City

Chelsea

Manchester United

Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle United

Other

35

27

22

8

2

2

2

2

Will Tadej Pogacar be found to have used doping by Dec 31 2025

Jul 22, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:29 PM

2.18%chance

6969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

669

15

Will Michael Nielsen have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:13 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

56.8%chance

9586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

179

US provides Ukraine more Patriot systems before September 30, 2025?

Jun 25, 8:25 PMSep 29, 11:59 PM

84.31%chance

5187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

43

Will a logic gate, exotic transistor, or circuit motif be named after Michael Nielsen OR Adam marblestone?

Apr 1, 10:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.1%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

92

Will Nielsen acknowledge any TV program that isn't a Super Bowl or Mash as receiving >100m viewers by the start of 2030?

Feb 21, 3:46 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

43.47%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

84

Will Michael Nielsen have kids by 2035?

Apr 23, 3:46 AMApr 30, 6:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

111

Will Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth continue or accelerate through EOY 2026?

May 16, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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