OptionProbability
Richard Hanania
Sam Altman
Growing Daniel
Robin Hanson
Elon Musk
Dave Chapelle
Cersei Lannister (from Game of Thrones)
Lelouch Lamperouge (from Code Geass)
Light Yagami (from Death Note)
Polymarket
Evil
Donald Trump
Men
Polygamous Mormons
Thanos
United States of America
UK
Diogenes
Monday
Engineering
Donald Trump (2004)
The Pivot
Scientology
Sauron
Hitler
Techno-solutionism
Bryan Caplan
Israel
Putin
Iran
Russia
SCOTUS
Aragorn
Queen Elizabeth II
Willingness to start Nuclear War
Japan
South Korea
Christianity
Islam
Zionism
God
Roman Empire
Voldemort
Libertarianism
Burning books
Censorship
Mercantilism
Windows
iOS
Effective Accelerationism
Emmanuel Macron
The Stock Market
Tax Fraud
Slytherin
Gryffindor
Nuclear Power
Gender-Critical Feminists
The Azov Brigade
The Butlerian Jihad
The Torment Nexus
The Second Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
John "Johnny Rotten" Lydon
𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘛𝘳𝘰𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴 by Robert A. Heinlein
The Rule of Law
Nick Land
Conspiracy Theory
Dolores Umbridge
Pickup Artistry
Racism
Sexism
Deontological Ethics
Virtue Ethics
The Roman Empire
The Roman Republic
Meritocracy
Racial Colorblindness
Idiocracy (2006)
Dementors (in Harry Potter)
Karl Lagerfeld
Francisco Franco
Victual Brothers
Project MKUltra
Hearts of Iron IV
Warhammer 40K
Having an Anime Avatar on Twitter/X
4chan
Eternal Love
Cryptocurrencies
Theocracy
Pronatalism
Havelock Vetinari
Philosemitism
Friedrich Nietzsche
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel
Carl Jung
Neo-Luddism
Antisemitism
Europa Universalis IV
House Harkonnen
House Atreides
House Corrino
Immanuel Kant
Frequentism
Elsevier
Ingsoc (1984)
Aviation
O'Brien from 1984
Michael Scott (from The Office)
Catholicism
The Kelly Criterion
The U.S. Founding Fathers
Julius Caesar
Napoleon Bonaparte
The average between Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Elon Musk in 2019
The most right-wing effective altruist you (the trader) personally know
having more than three children
private members clubs
Eagle
APAs (beer)
Minions
Travis Kelce
NIMBYism
RFK Jr.
Watching sports
Gambling on Sports
fast food
franchising
Dogs
The Senate Filibuster
strength training
The Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution
Mosquitoes
Bears 🐻
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (the alliance between the USSR and Nazi Germany)
Defense
NATO
The Meiji Restoration
Fortnite
David Fincher
Purple
Rammstein (the band)
Grass
Marvin the Martian
US politics
Microsoft
The police (the actual police, not the band)
not putting the toilet seat down after peeing
Great Britain
The British Empire
The Great Basil Empire
the Steam Engine
dogecoin
Chesterton's Fence
Neoliberalism
Extraversion
Antidisestablishmentarianism
Recommending state sponsored euthanasia to people because they're poor
Ordo Templi Orientis
One-party system
Working
Religion
Casinos
Mr. House (Fallout New Vegas)
Dr. House
Antisemitism in 2024
Logging
Queens (the sovereigns)
House M.D.
Protoss (star craft universe)
labeling everything into right-wing and left-wing
"Conspicuous consumption"
Flipping a coin
To kill (your own) dog. [IMPORTANT, PLEASE NOTE: Dog, not puppy.]
Queens (the chess pieces)
Being off the grid
Libria (from Equilibrium, the movie 2002)
Darwin Awards
Oscar Mayer Wienermobile
Using sweepstakes rules as an end-run around gambling regulation
Doomsday prepping
Predatory animals
Eating meat
Aggression
Hunting
The majority of people in the world
Economics
Victimizing others for political power
The wing that has caused the most deaths, *net of any lives it might have saved*
Saying "y'all"
Paganism, like in the Roman Empire
Paganism, like executing Socrates
Standardized academic testing
Homeschooling
The Mafia
Private charity
Diabetes
Motorcycle (instead of a car)
Magic: the Gathering (Azorious)
Magic: the Gathering (Grixis)
Magic: the Gathering (Orzohv)
Magic: the Gathering (Spike)
Political Centerists
Mustache (only, as opposed to bearded or clean shaven)
Clean shaven face
Cocaine and Hookers (as a single concurrent activity, as opposed to serverally or individually)
Nature, as opposed to Nurture
corruption
nepotism
The classification of objects
The average person
The average American
Patents
Embryo selection for IQ
Authority
Debt-trap diplomacy
Kiki
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Intelligence/IQ/g
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Height
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Attractiveness
Polygenic Embryo Selection against Autism
Creating options on this martet that are lowkey the same thing as an already existing option
Hereditary rule
Wealth inheritance
Gold
Eugenics
Progress studies
Everything is communism
monarchism
Good faith voting that prioritizes capitalist over populist interpretation of the market
Bodybuilding
The secret group behind everything
Tall
Wide
Choosing the man over the bear
Looking for a man in finance, trust fund, 6’5, blue eyes
a man in finance, trust fund, 6'5, blue eyes
Finance
thinking 4 is a smaller number than -10
Hunks
Bears
J.R.R. Tolkien
Hobbits
Corpulence
Twunks
Uppers
Downers
Ice Hockey
Believing people on the right are fundamentally good.
The Austrian School
Believing people are fundamentally bad.
Believing that the world is an evil illusion which our greatest hope is to escape from.
Believing that everything happens for a reason.
Believing that ending sentences with prepositions is something up with which we should not put.
The honorific "Mrs."
Ineffective charities
Saying « I’m not racist, but… »
Karens
Net-negative counterfactual impact charities
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally good.
Believing that knives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally bad.
Appeasing Russia
Magpies
Corsets
Walternate (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Walter Bishop)
American tourists
Preference for Dinousars looking scaly, as opposed to feathery
Eating
Drinking
Capitalism
Mercantilism
Anarcho-capitalism
Moneylending
« Your mom » jokes
« Ur gay » jokes
« If…, then you’re gay » jokes
Fundamental (or absolute) morality
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were indeed left wing
watching national competitions (world cups etc) instead of professiona club competitions/individual competitions (for instance, UEFA Eurocup (national representations) in football instead of UEFA Champions league (professional sport teams))
Authoritarianism
Game shows
Talk shows
Reality shows
9/11 Conspiracy Theories
Effective political campaigning and coalition building
Independent Voters
The Supreme Court of the United States of America
Ronald Reagan
αρετη
θυμός
στοργή
Becoming a lord with the lord title company thingy
Believing humans have heritable physical traits
Believing humans have heritable cognitive traits
The person who shot at Trump
Believing that you need to believe things that aren't true in order to be a good person
Believing that you should have a good life if and only if you're a good person
Voting for the winner of every US presidential election since 2000
E/Acc
Use of stone tools
Farming
Domestication of animals
Backyard chickens
Sailing
The right of gay men to protect their marijuana farm with guns.
Believing illegal immigrants have heritable cognitive traits
Libtard
Generalist
The cool kids
Gamers
Joe Manchin
Straight non-white Latino women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Straight white men aged 55-64 from rural Florida who are atheist and who were educated toward high school
Lesbian white women aged 18-24 from rural Alaska who are Evangelical and who were educated to high school
JD Vance
doping for body performance
the "culture war"
The decisions corporate executives/ upper management make at work
How corporate executives/ upper management vote personally
Transmedicalism
People in 2024 who enjoy the film White Chicks
The YouTube political content creators that get more views.
New money
Bashar al-Assad
Hamas
Homeowner in the hood (D+80, minority-majority precinct) owns two pickup trucks parked on the driveway and has an American flag hanging off the porch. No other banners/ signs.
The belief that a largely unmoderated social media platform should not face boycotts or government censorship
Lex Fridman
"Yes"
Looking for a good deal
"Your right to free speech ends just where my ears begin"
Elites
Nobles
Small business
Heroes
"Sex work is bad because it's sex"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get sex"
long live the queen
Youtube recommendation algorithm
Hard-working, devout Catholic, traditional-value-minded, entrepreneurial undocumented immigrants
Gay Mormon tax
Bearish Bulls
The original Constitution of the United States, without any amendments
The Constitution of the United States, with the first 10 amendments (Bill of Rights)
The current Constitution of the United States, with its 27 amendments
English Americans
Saddam Hussein
Anarcho-Egoism
Eco-Fascism
Fourth political theory
People in 42024 BCE who enjoyed Grugh the Caveman's painting, "Grugh kill bison with spear, Fronk weak caveman no help"
Legalizing gambling on politics
Futarchy
The works of Christopher Nolan
X should be legal because freedom is more important than Y consequence.
Beating your kids
Requiring your kids to accept hugs/kisses from relatives when they don't want to
Legacy admissions - getting into a university because your parents are alumni
Economic literacy
Killing your neighbor's pet and eating it
Killing your neighbor's pet but not eating it
The madonna/whore complex
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into Representatives of The People
Alcohol prohibitionism
Subsidiarity
Anarcho-cannibalism
Attacking Karl Popper with a fireplace poker
Thomas Jefferson's relationship with Sally Hemings
Living in a town where everyone votes for the same political party
Living in a town where everyone goes to the same church
Living in a town where everyone works for the same employer
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the same school
Homeschooled kids, like Rebecca Black ("Friday" singer) or Cady, the main character from Mean Girls
“The national debt is now $xx trillion, we need to stop borrowing against our grandchildren”
Thinking you or other people speak without an accent, as if that is even possible lol
speaking with the same accent as the median TV presenter
Overpollution and burning fossil fuels, thereby ruining the environment for our grandchildren
Not charging emitters for the social cost of carbon, causing overpollution and fossil fuel use
Having an independent central bank
Trying to take an average over a space that has no well defined average
Political violence
Disliking the American Constitution because it’s a product of the Enlightenment
the madhi coming to the world this century
Having no central bank.
WVO Quine
Phosphorus
Allowing actors to profit from the positive externalities they create
Free banking
Having a currency board
Floating exchange rates
Enclosure of the commons
Inventing insulting nicknames for your political opponents (e.g. "Sleepy Joe")
Turning the names of politicians you oppose into rude words (e.g. "santorum")
"Parental Advisory: Explicit Lyrics" warning labels.
Changing the name of a food on your menu to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom fries")
Changing the name of a drug that you sell to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom kush", "red white and blue tar heroin")
The Hidden-Variable Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The "All About the Math, No Interpretation" of Quantum Mechanics
Concorde
Using LLMs for linguistic analysis in court cases
Using category theory to analyze the Christian Doctrine of the Trinity
Bias
Substack
Being undecided in the 2024 election
“The west is the best” (said in 2016)
“The west is the best” (said today)
Committing a financial crime
sugar
Being neither left wing nor right wing
Hating the West Wing (in 2002)
Hating the West Wing (today)
Shit talking on internet communities, then pretending they didn't
Adultery
Nude Africa
Liking Harry Potter in 2021
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) striking at this point of the presidential race
Saying “Persia” instead of “Iran”
Plastic surgery
@SteveSokolowski
Thinking the one person we select as President is more important than the 1,000s of government positions they will appoint new members to after they are elected.
Voting in line with Blackrock, Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Pfizer, Moderna and the rest of the corporate industrial complex.
Believes corporate personhood is the largest issue in this election.
Gender-confirming conspicuous consumption
Gender-confirming consumption
Vice signaling: performatively doing something "bad" to show defiance of someone you disapprove of
Sydney Sweeney's boobs
Watches over $500
Think tanks
Coming from wealth
Black ethnonationalism
White ethnonationalism
Jewish Ethnonationalism
Arab ethnonationalism
Christian nationalism
Being pro-choice for race-selective abortions
Running ads on an alt-right website because the ads are cheap and then going "oops" when your audience becomes notably less tolerant of others
Political rallies
Embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
The Uyghur genocide
Honor killings
Political extremism
Opposing xenogenders
Believing all spirits not in ingroup are demons
Believing you cannot be “plural” without having a dissociative disorder
Copyright law
Compulsory heterosexuality
Virginity == purity
Hormone-activated pheramone perfume
Kegel exercises
Missionary sex with lights off
Thinking "righty tighty, lefty loosey" is about politics
Eating chicken without seasoning
jk Rowling
white freezies
Boiling chicken
Frying chicken
Grilling chicken
Roasting chicken
The average first-wave feminist by today’s standards
Portuguese retirees
Bimetallism
British politics
first past the post voting
Party Switchers (new ideology relative to old)
The belief that vaccines cause autism
Gollum
Smeagol
Boromir
Blohm & Voss P 194
Disliking Trump but not thinking he is a fascist
Calling China “West Taiwan”
Not using tone tags
Not using trigger warnings
Being a virgin
making a big thing out of being a virgin
The concept of virginity
Thinking "AI art" is art
Block Plurality (“plurality-at-large”) Voting
The One Ring
The Philippines
Tariffs
Free trade
The fortnight before the US election
Lisa Murkowski
Spending the night before the election in a US fort
Dubai
Election fraud
Voter fraud
Worrying about voter fraud
Worrying about election fraud
Airstrikes in Beirut
Calling Mongolia "North Taiwan"
Pennsylvania
Calling Japan "Northeast Taiwan"
Calling Kazakhstan "West West Taiwan"
Balloon animals
Breeding cats
CrossFit
Ross Perot
Malty beer
Watery beer
Sparta
Beef jerky
Water polo
Spray tans
Vriska Serket
The winner of the 2024 United States presidential election
Skipping leg day
Garbage
Christmas
Batman/Bruce Wayne
Statues
Statutes
Pink capitalism
Der Ring des Nibelungen in 2024
National bolshevism aka nazbol
Killing Harambe The Gorilla
Gorilla Grodd
Poll Denialism
Killing countless animals in the process of factory farming
The year 1984
George Orwell shooting that elephant in Burma
Trans-Exclusionary Radical Feminism
Supporting Genghis Khan in the US today
mars
the sun
going to space
Accelerationist My Little Pony fanfic communities
Elvis
fillers (cosmetic)
Orcs
Dwarves
AI (not al)
Baby
Hillbilly Capitalism
Genocide
Opposing Al (not ai)
Manhattan-like Project for AGI
Opposable thumbs
Humans
Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes
Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles
Cream-colored ponies and crisp apple strudels
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
The Inca civilisation
Liechtenstein
Reducing the deficit
people who call themselves "classical liberals"
people who actually fit the definition of a classical liberal
Tulsi Gabbard (in 2020)
Treating "the definition" of a word as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
Treating "the grammar" of a language as if it was anything other than how people actually use it
The future of the US Democratic Party, relative to its current position
The future of the US Republican Party, relative to its current position
National Treasure
Survivor (the reality show)
Thanksgiving
Feminazism i.e. violent mass enslavement and genocidal extermination of men
Populism
Centrism
Andrew Jackson
Being apolitical
Microstates
non-geographic nations
Writing in Hailey Welch for president
Unintentionally spoiling your ballot
Ea-nāṣir
Seventh Day Adventists
Criticizing anything left-wing
Italy
Tucking in your shirt
Hats (male)
Hats (female)
Shoes with laces
Eggman's announcement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XyEosgoGgg
Adaptive fitness
Making the world worse to maximize applicability of your adaptive fitness
Being a stupid human
Syria's Sednaya Prison, "Assad's human slaughterhouse"
Protectionism
The average American ten years ago, compared to the average American today
Plato
Aristotle
Toonocalypse
Federalist Party
The San Francisco Freedom Club
People who don’t vote
Gambling
Lucio Russo
Back to office policies
Sam's Club
George Washington
Taking 'Roko's Basilisk' Seriously
Mohammed
Strasserism
This market continuously closing and reopening
Buying a Tesla
John Adams
The unbearable slowness of being
Reality itself
Thomas Jefferson
Siding with India in the India-Pakistan conflicts of 2025
Playing tennis
Anime
Working for the FBI
Working for the CIA
Duke Nukem (Character)
Proud Boys
Letting a cat outside
Scambaiting
The Iranian regime's use of rape, torture, sexual assault to suppress women's protests in 2022-23
War
Consequences despite integrity
Lying to conform to the group
Falun Gong
Hitman: World of Assassination (2021)
Baroque Architecture
Political purges (targeted, systematic removal of opponents)
Druze people
fireworks
Borrowing against our grandchildren, thereby ruining the economy for them
Wild-caught diseases
JFK Jr. (edit: meant RFK Jr.)
Wild-caught bacon
Medical-bill bankruptcy
Taking sides in a conflict between two deeply right wing countries
Wild-caught salmon
Bedouin people
Having a pet cow
Lard
drone shows
One night stands
macOS
Bro try herhood
International Intrigue - Your cheeky guide to a complicated world. Get the 5-minute newsletter designed by former diplomats at https://www.internationalintrigue.io
Alois Mundo
Botox raven cosplay
The Sinclair method
Opinion columnists
Sam Dalrymple
Having other countries and/or people pay for your security
FreeBSD
NetBSD
OpenBSD
Michigan
Olive oil
Biltong
Canola oil
Sesame oil
Moving in together after the second date
The New York Times, as of 7/30/2025
Being poor while paying massive taxes towards "free" healthcare
Sam Kriss
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Gordon Ramsay
Destiny
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Severus Snape (from Harry Potter)
Walter White (from Breaking Bad)
Harry-James-Potter-Evans-Verres (from HPMOR)
Dobby (from Harry Potter)
@Bayesian
Manifold Markets
Kalshi
Good
Steven Pinker
Sam Harris
Einstein
Jreg (Satirical anti-centrist)
Artificial Intelligence
This market
Richard Dawkins
Women
Sisyphus
Elon Musk in 2014
Mao
Stalin
Friday
Humor
Gandalf
Participating in this market
The Ivy League
Xi Jinping
China
Software Engineering
North Korea
Europe
Atheism
Buddhism
Judaism
Effective Altruism
Metaculus
Books
Linux
Android
Skibidi toilet
Rationalussy
Satan
Pastafarianism
Taxes
Sam Bankman-Fried
Magnus Carlsen
Hufflepuff
Ravenclaw
Chess.com
Lichess
AGI
Albus Dumbledore
Minerva McGonagall
Hermione Granger
Taylor Swift
Sirius Black
Harry Potter (as a character)
Ron Weasley
Luna Lovegood
Trotskyists
Gay White Cis Men
Solarpunk
The Buddhadharma
Freedom of Speech
𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘥 by Robert A. Heinlein
Nick Bostrom
Class-First Socialist Analysis
Wikipedia
Solar power
Wind power
Geothermal power
Hydropower
SpaceX
Tesla
The Rawlsian Veil of Ignorance
Consequentialist Ethics
You, The Trader On This Market
The Future
Surprise
Zootopia (2016)
MrBeast
Patroni (in Harry Potter, plural form of Patronus)
Keep the Aspidistra Flying
hermit crabs
The Baltic Way
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Minecraft
Project Blue Book
Roblox
Lawlessness
Drugs
International
The First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Antinatalism
Geoengineering
Youtube
The Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America
Bayesian Reasoning
Sci-Hub
Bernard Marx (from Brave New World)
Karl Marx
Guy Montag (from Fahrenheit 451)
Coolfold self-immolation
Robin Hood
Pope Francis
Transaction fees [shares*prob*(1 - prob)*0.07]
Manifold poker nights
The concept of the left-right political spectrum
The Artemis program
Jesus
Squidward
Ozempic
Georgism
The most left-wing effective accelerationist you (the trader) personally know
Ghosting
Traffic lights
The colour red
Soccer
The Marx Brothers
All votes in this market are equal regardless of mana (left), but the creator is making a big profit (right)
Parrots
Chupacabra
academia
YIMBYism
A healthy diet
Cats
cardio
Proportional representation
Ants 🐜
The United Nations
GMOs
Squirrels 🐿️
organic food
Renaming something to avoid bad PR
The protestors at Tiananmen Square
Curiosity
The Allies in World War 2
The Entente in World War 1
Disease
Video Games
Québec Separatism
Nanotechnology
Speedrunning
Boobs
Unity
Scott Pilgrim
TV shows
Cable TV
Greek Letters
Amnesia
Dyson Spheres
Time travel
Ordinary Least Squares Regression
Borgs (Star Trek )
The Police (the band, not the actual police)
The People's Front of Judea
Taylor Swift
Selena Gomez
Justin Bieber
Kurt Cobain
Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer
Soup
Having sex in the fields to make the crops grow
Liberalism
mind control
Changing your mind
Spelling mistakes
Memes
The minimum wage in Nordic countries
The level of wealth inequality in Sweden
Ernst Thälmann
Lactation cookies
The Warsaw pact
Resisting the ayatollahs' regime, like Saddam did in the 80s
Kibbutzim
Golden rice (vitamin A enriched to prevent blindness in the Third World)
Open borders, a Koch brothers proposal
The internet
protesting
Politics (in general)
Making sure you understand options before voting for them
Tiktok
Dungeons and Dragons
Sex work to pay your own way through medical school
Needing a license to cut hair
Having the proper amount of esteem for Jews - not too much, not too little
White-collar jobs
Anarchism
The Bronx
People holding elected office
Queens (the borough)
Chess
Queens (the men who dress as women)
Opposing Zionism, like Saddam always did
Resisting the imperialistic American invasion of Iraq, like Saddam did
Rejecting the absolute monarchy of Kuwait, like Saddam did in 1990
still greeting people with fist bump (despite COVID is in the past)
no gluten diet (in people without gluten related intolerance or disease) as a hobby
The Khmer Rouge
Two-state solution
Jonathan Swift
Holodomor
Asking ‘Would You Rather?’
Prey animals
Pro Immortalism
Vegetarianism
Veganism
Passivity
Exploiting the victim stance for political power
Gemini star sign
Believing your views are evidence-based even as you label an entire domain of human knowledge as the opposing wing
Paganism
Mistakes
the Judean People's Front
Autodidacticism
Phonics
Catdog (portmanteau referring to a cat and a dog joined at the waist facing away from each other, each with their own two front paws for a total of four legs)
Believing that the world would end during our lifetime
Magic: the Gathering (in person, paper magic)
Magic: the Gathering Arena (Hearthstone client imitation)
Magic: the Gathering Online (before pretty pretty Arena, there was MTGO)
Magic: the Gathering (Timmy)
Magic: the Gathering (Johnny)
Magic: the Gathering (Vorthos)
Tax exemptions for non-profit status
501(c)(3) entities (the most common 501 tax exempt entity by tax identification)
Coffee
Beards (facial hair, excluding mustache only, as opposed to clean shaven face)
NPR (National Public Radio)
AP (Associated Press)
Benjamin Franklin (the historical figure, not the various currency)
Aptitude for Mathematics in general
Aptitude for Science in general
Aptitude in S.T.E.M. in general
Aptitude for History in general
Aptitude for Political Science in general
Aptitude for Entertainment in general
Aptitude "in Bed" in general
Aptitude for Languages in general
Aptitude for Writing in general
Nurture, as opposed to Nature
Ineptitude, in general
Trust
Double standards
Privacy
Honesty
The truth
Hope
Big Government
Obamacare
Sheeple
The greater good
The ideal person
The ideal American
Equal opportunity for all
Equal opportunity for all, but more equal for some
Bouba
The bettors on this market
Dying with dignity
Abortion of Down's Syndrome Fetuses
Abortion
IVF
Polygenic Embryo Selection
Monogenetic Embryo Selection in IVF
Pineapple on pizza
Overdosing on drugs
Polygenic Embryo Selection for Educational Attainment
Polygenic Embryo Selection for general health
Polygenic Embryo Selection against cancer risk
Creating passive-agressive options on this market
Voting on options for this market based on whether you like them instead of what side of the political spectrum they actually fit on
Human Cloning
Cloning John von Neumann
Voluntary Eugenics
Manifest (the event hosted by Manifold)
Everything is fascism
republicanism (opposition to monarchy, support of self-governance)
Twinks
Camille Paglia
Coziness
Slenderness
Field Hockey
Air Hockey
Believing people are fundamentally good.
Believing that responsible stewardship of animals, plants, and natural resources is a fundamental duty of humankind.
Pope Francis' encyclical letter Laudato si'
Virtue signaling
Saying « I’m not a rationalist, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… »
Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually not being gay
Believing that guns are fundamentally bad.
Believing that knives are fundamentally bad.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.
thinking 0+4i is a smaller number than -10
modified newtonian dynamics
Walter Bishop (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Olivia Dunham (character from Fringe, main timeline version)
Bolivia/Fauxlivia (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Olivia Dunham)
Peter Bishop (character from Fringe)
Mother's Day
Queerbaiting
Dermatillomania
Femboys
Sour patch kids
Being attracted to overweight men
Being attracted to overweight women
Believing that AI should be regulated
Anarchism
Making things worse in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Furthering the goals of the right wing in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)
Touching grass
Relative morality
Invention of television.
Invention of the phone.
Invention of the wheel.
Emergence of social media in the internet/information age.
Big data
thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were actually right-wing and not communist countries
Max Stirner's defintion of a "spook."
Not realizing eastern bloc countries were victims of Soviet imperialism
Soviet imperialism
the Holodomor
forced labor in the gulag
Progress
Alternative medicine
Authoritarian Socialism
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for not espousing communist orthodoxy
Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for espousing right-wing ideas
“Biden should drop out”
Podcasts
spitting on people
Body dysmorphia
Anorexia
Continental philosophy
Analytic philosophy
The right to use anything as your name that you choose as long as it isn't for purposes of fraud
αγάπη
φιλία
ερως
Becoming vegetarian because Jesus loves animals
Believing non-human animals have heritable physical traits
Believing non-human animals have heritable cognitive traits
The Giver
Pottery
Writing
Control of fire
Lack of significant body hair compared to other primates
Behavioral modernity
Bipedalism
Specialist
Joe Biden
2024 Summer Olympics Opening
Kyrsten Sinema
Ideal philosophy student of perfect emptiness
Straight Asian women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes
Kamala Harris
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Josh Shapiro
Mark Kelly
Anonymous
THE International System of Units
interpreting everything as " it's just a slavery with extra steps ... "
doping for mental performance
Good little Biden
Any presidential candidate doping for mental performance :)
Betting objectively negative options on this market towards the side of the political spectrum you don’t identify with
People in 2004 who enjoyed the film White Chicks
Banksy
Being American but liking Hamas
Thinking Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer
The belief that a bookstore that carries objectionable content should not face boycotts or government censorship
"No"
"Maybe"
"Sex work is bad because it's work"
"Sex work is good because it's how I get work"
Student section at college football games
Land value tax
Gay Mormons
The metric system, like "see ya in a megasecond" or "ugh, 295K weather is fine but 300K is just unbearable"
The original Constitution of the United States, without any English
the state of Kerala in India
Muammar Gaddafi
People in 1424 who enjoyed "The Canterbury Tales"
People in 2024 who enjoy "The Canterbury Tales"
A tax imposed on, collected by, and funding Gay Mormons
The Bee Movie
Jazz
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one corporation/network of corporations
Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one person
Madonna (the musician)
Putting too much power in Representatives of The People
"Footloose" starring Kevin Bacon
Eating dog meat
Putting the adequate amount of power in Representatives of The People
Charitably listening to the concerns of the other party.
Women's Suffragettes
John Brown (19th century abolitionist)
Pitbull (singer)
Naivety
David Ben-Gurion
Thomas Jefferson's letter to the Danbury Baptists
Living in a town where everyone goes to the Unitarian church
Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the Montessori school
Living in a kibbutz where everyone works for the same employer
Wittgenstein’s Tractatus
Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations
Sleep
Complaining about your grandparents' generation ruining the economy for you
Richard Rorty
Having an accent
Allowing polluters to pay to pollute (i.e. "carbon tax")
Richard Even Rortier
Gavagai
"Possible Girls" by Neil Sinhababu
"Can There Be Vague Objects?" by Gareth Evans
Hesperus
The Duhem-Quine Thesis
Potlucks
Making actors bear the cost of the negative externalities they create
Currency pegs
Capital controls
Hilary Putnam (1977)
Hilary Putnam (1994)
The Principle of Sufficient Reason
Manifold comments in the past few weeks
Empirio-criticism
The Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
Knowing a ton about Islam despite neither believing nor being raised in it.
Postmodernism
Creating an option in this market and then accidentally betting it in the wrong direction
Philosophical realism
Algebraists
Analysts
Scientific realism
Scientific antirealism
Liking IRV over first past the post, but not liking approval, STAR voting, or Condorcet methods
Being capable of steelmanning the opposition.
Intuitionism (in mathematics)
Justice
Open marriages
Reading nasty people who diaagree with u just for the dopamine hit
Liking Harry Potter in 2019
ASI
Monophysitism
The indictment of NYC Mayor Eric Adams
Emitting CO2 to produce solar panels to be sold on an open market
Gender-confirming medical treatments
Minoxidil
Enlightenment Now
short-selling crude oil
Statistical election models
Being aware of the influence special interest has pumped into social media recommendation/search bias.
Value signaling consumption
Value signaling outfit
Microdosing
Visiting the opera
Being pro-choice for sex-selective abortions
Writing in Joe Biden for president
"Holy hempers" - people who say its okay to smoke weed because Jesus also smoked weed
"Crackheads for Christ" - people who say its okay to smoke crack because Jesus also smoked crack
Going to church without believing it
Driving a hybrid minivan to accommodate your 3+ children
Decree 770
Doodling
Thinking AI art is theft
Thinking going to church without believing in it is an example of embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons
Responsive and spontaneous desire
Kink support/accountability groups
Using mindfulness meditation for better seggs
3d printed, anatomically correct depictions of larger clitoral network
Enthusiastic consent
consent smell aromatherapy candles
Individualised medicine offering pleasure mapping to discover eroggenous zones
A seggs dungeon with a focus on aftercare
A lubricant sommelier certification course
A seggsual fantasy based on consent negotiations
Pro state massage
Hands-on, self-motivated sex
Quick learner with a passion for processes and multitasking in bed
Detail-oriented and organized sex
Missionary sex with lights on
Keir Starmer
Holodomor denial
orange popsicles
Not buying olives with stones
Asking “why?” over and over like 4 yr olds do
Going camping
Cities
Trekking
Mountaineering
Breaking the law
Jill Stein
First time voters.
Home vegetable gardens
Femcels
Voting
Frodo
Sam Gamyi
Legolas
Stealing from a bank
Wiping from front to back
fiction
News
Marxism-Rodgerism
Independent journalism
Magic
Today's Vietnam
National parks
Autarky
Playing Fortnite before the US Election
Non-partisan elections
Biden dropping out
NIH grants
Cybersecurity
This market crashing on mobile because there are too many options
Being broke
Early voting
Dan Osborn
Fingerboarding
Podiatry
Hacky sack
Stray cat trap, neuter, and release
Hoppy beer
Skunky weed
Fruity weed
Grassy weed
Libertarian Progressivism
Progressive Libertarianism
Coloring
Doing Zumba
Playing tuba
Driving Ubers
Ballot initiatives
Doing the one block vertical jump for the beef
Being anxious about the election
Halloween
Making Election Day a holiday
Anarcho-communist homosexual-fascism aka ancom homofash
Killing Peanut The Squirrel
Killing Gorilla Grodd
First Quantization
Second Quantization
1984 by George Orwell
Saying “literally 1984”
The number 1984
Vatican II
earth
the moon
'That 1 friend whose politics makes no sense' in the latest Man Carrying Thing video
Space
Elves
Elfs
Universes Beyond
Waiting in line
election day doomscrolling
doomscrolling (general)
DnD 1e
DnD 5e
Al (not ai)
Al (Yankovic)
Nothing
Time
We Didn’t Start the Fire (song by Billy Joel)
This Land Is Your Land (song by Woody Guthrie)
Opposing AI
Punk
Opposing Force (Half-Life expansion pack)
Opossums
BDSM
Manifold’s average user base
Liberal Democrats (UK)
Silver white winters that melt into springs
Snowflakes that stay on my nose and eyelashes
Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings
Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Teachers who swear in class
Pahoehoe
Aa
The Cucuteni-Trypillia culture
Treating your grandma poorly
Safe Sex
Labor unions
UAW
Misandry i.e. hate and discrimination against men
Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party
“Y.M.C.A.” by Village People
Twitter (in 2021)
New social medias created because of perceived problems in an existing one (e.g. Truth Social or Bluesky)
Sonic the Hedgehog
Shoes with velcro
Shoes with zips
Wearing trousers as a woman
Skolem's paradox
The Onion
Community Notes on Twitter
Free Trade, in 2024
Donald Trump at whatever time in his life he was most left-wing
Lilith (Diablo 4)
Socrates
Abraham Lincoln
Philip K. Dick
Luigi Mangione
Yourself (reader) ten years ago, compared to yourself today
The Young Turks (news show) in 2016
The Young Turks (news show) today
Jesse Singal
People who don’t vote out of protest
League of Legends
Costco
dath ilan
Scientists
People who don’t vote because they can’t
Ubiratan d’Ambrosio
Ernst Mach
Ratatouille (film)
Ratatouille (dish)
Juche
Voting for Jill Stein
Octopus
Buying a Tesla (in 2019)
Being a lawyer
Needing a lawyer
The Matrix
Battlestar Galactica
Ursula Le Guin
President Xi Jinping
Manifest 2025
Astronauts
Working for NASA
Male vs Female boxing fights
Integrity despite consequences
Siding with the Iranian regime
modal realism
Boxbox riven cosplay
Classical music
being a public intellectual with ostensibly left-leaning views, but whose career would be obsolete without family wealth/connections
Indoor air quality nerds
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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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90
87
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77
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5
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3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Denis Villeneuve
Gina Prince-Blythewood
Steve McQueen
Christopher Nolan
Edward Berger
Matthew Vaughn
Greta Gerwig
Emerald Fennell
Martin Campbell
Danny Boyle
Cary Fukunaga
Steven Spielberg
Chad Stahelski
Christopher McQuarrie
Chloé Zhao
Joseph Kosinski
Matt Reeves
Quentin Tarantino
Paul Greengrass
J.J. Abrams
Kathryn Bigelow
Park Chan-wook
Jordan Peele
Yann Demange
Alex Garland
Guillermo del Toro
Olivia Wilde
Robert Eggers
Lynne Ramsay
Guy Ritchie
Alfonso Cuarón
Other
99
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
It is not possible to multitask
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
21
19
12
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.
Prediction markets are good
[*] ...and things will improve in the future
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
Authoritarian populism is bad actually
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Most organized religion are false
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]
Pineapple pizza tastes good
The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics
Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives
Liberal-democracy is good actually
Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.
Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.
The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term
American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.
Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site
Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.
The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.
If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
The United States doesn't need a strong third party.
Being a billionaire is morally wrong.
Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism
People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.
There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.
Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.
Political libertarianism
You should bet NO on this option
The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse
[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.
White people are the least racist of any racial group
Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
God is evil
A sandwich is a type of hot dog
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.
Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)
It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
China not having real democracy does more good than harm
Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.
Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon
Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of
Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives
Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.
Humans don't have free will.
The next American moon landing will be faked
AI art is better than human art
Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work
The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).
The first American moon landing was faked
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
Astrology is actually true.
93
91
88
86
81
79
79
79
78
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76
74
73
72
72
71
71
71
70
67
67
66
65
60
59
59
58
55
51
50
50
50
50
48
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46
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41
40
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36
35
33
33
32
31
30
27
26
26
23
23
22
22
21
21
19
19
16
14
11
9
9
7
7
6
6
5
5
OptionProbability
Mark Manson
Adam M. Curry
Jaan Tallinn
Eric Czuleger
Jack Dorsey
Bryan Johnson
Liron Shapira
Andrew Bustamonte
Graham Handcock
Andrew Gallimore
Hamilton Morris
Zach De La Rocha
Audrey Tang
Scott Aaronson
Scott Alexander
Rick Rubin
Nathan Young
KRS-1
Max Tegmark
Rob Miles
Connor Leahy
Samo Burja
George Hotz
Jan Leike
Andrew Huberman
Karl Marx
David Shapiro
Tim Kennedy
Sean Carroll
Roger Penrose
Tim Ferris
Mark Laita
Chris Ramsey
David Grush
Nick Bostrom
Permendes
Pythagoras
David Chalmers
Roman Yampolskiy
Stuart Russell
Brian Armstrong
Nate Soares
Doug Lenat
Geoffrey Hinton
Nathan Labenz
Julian Dorey
Yoshua Bengio
Zvi Mowshowitz
The user @krantz
Dave Smith
David Deutsch
Ilya Sutskever
Hal Putoff
Eric Weinstein
Lex Fridman
Balaji Srinivasan
Daniel Sheehan
Daniel Hillis
Tom Campbell
Curt Jaimungal
Robin Hanson
Andrew Yang
Matthew Pines
Jesse Michels
Danny Jones
Jack Kruse
Ben Goertzle
Jake Barber
David Hume
Immanuel Kant
Ludwig Wittgenstein
Bertrand Russell
Dan Faggela
Robert Monroe
Mike Benz
Chris Bledsoe
Julian Assange
Micheal Levin
Shawn Ryan
Jeffrey Mishlove
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Steven Greer
Harald Malmgren
Noam Chomsky
Matt Beall
Avi Loeb
Robert Epstein
Narendra Modi
Jeffrey Sachs
Gary Nolan
Daryl Cooper
John McAfee
Diogenes
Daryl Davis
David Goggins
Tucker Carlson
Suchir Balaji
Alex Jones
Steven Bonell (Destiny)
Bernie Sanders
Joe Rogan
Dick Cheney
Ezra Klein
Sam Altman
Dario Amodei
Larry Ellison
Dwarkesh Patel
Donald Trump
George Washington
Robert Kennedy Jr
Douglas Murry
Elon Musk
Palmer Luckey
Peter Tiel
Joeseph Farrell
Jeremy Corbell
Amjad Masad
Ammon Hillman
Jordan Peterson
Aaron Rodgers
Sergey Brin
Steve Kwast
Rob Reiner
Eric Prince
Andrew Tate
Alex Karp
Vladimir Putin
97
96
96
96
96
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83
83
82
82
82
82
82
81
81
81
81
81
81
81
81
80
80
80
79
77
74
73
72
66
66
66
66
66
66
63
59
57
57
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
36
34
20
OptionProbability
Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)
Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)
Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)
Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)
Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)
Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)
Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)
Drake (Oct 24, 1986)
Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)
Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)
Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)
Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)
Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)
Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)
Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)
Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)
Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)
Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)
Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)
Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)
Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)
Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)
Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)
Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)
Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)
Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)
Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)
Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)
Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)
Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)
Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)
Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)
Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)
Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)
Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)
Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)
Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)
Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)
Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)
Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)
Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)
Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)
Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)
Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)
Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)
Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)
Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)
John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)
Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)
Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)
JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)
Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)
Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)
Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)
Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)
Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)
Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)
Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)
Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)
Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)
Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)
Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)
Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)
Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)
Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)
Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)
Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)
Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)
Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)
Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)
George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)
Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)
Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)
Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)
Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)
Bernie Madoff
James Earl Jones (Jan 17, 1931)
96
92
90
86
86
84
83
77
76
75
75
74
72
71
67
66
66
66
66
64
64
62
61
61
60
59
59
59
59
56
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52
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51
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50
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50
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50
48
44
44
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38
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35
35
34
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34
34
34
33
30
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28
26
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21
21
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20
19
18
17
17
16
14
12
12
11
11
11
9
8
8
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Danny Sheehan
Krantz Hanzinpantz
Other
Daniel Hillis
Harald Malmgren
Jerome Powell
Jesse Michels
Danny Jones
Curt Jaimungal
Gary Stevenson
Steven Greer
Jesus of Nazareth
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Balaji Srinivasan
Robert Kennedy Jr
Jack Kruse
Eric Weinstein
Chris Bledsoe
Robert Epstein
Jake Barber
Robin Hanson
Suchir Balaji
Shawn Ryan
Jeffrey Mishlove
Daryl Davis
Brian Tomasik
Sir Isaac Newton
John Mcafee
Julian Assange
Micheal Levin
Hal Putoff
Avi Loeb
Mike Benz
Ben Goertzle
Gary Nolan
Jeffrey Sachs
Matthew Pines
Scott Galloway
Catherine Fitts
Samo Burja
David Friedberg
Mike Gravel
Tom Cambell
Robert Monroe
Bryan Johnson
Georgi Dimitrov
Marshall McLuhan
11
11
10
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Adaptation of the “Odyssey”
Summer release date
Male main character
2026 release date
Shot on IMAX 70mm film
Nolan also credited as a writer and producer
Emma Thomas producing
Rotten Tomatoes critic score >80% two weeks after release
Longer than 2hrs 30mins runtime
Involves the manipulation of the time or of the perception of time (e.g., time moving slower in dreams, non-chronological scenes in Memento to emulate amnesia, the whole plots of Interstellar and Tenet)
Nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars
Has a run time over 2.5 hours
Rotten Tomatoes critic score >90% two weeks after release
Scored by Hans Zimmer
Passes the bechdel test
Rotten tomatoes audience score greater than critics score two weeks after release
Based on a historical figure or event
Makes $1B at the global box office on initial release
Cillian Murphy will be in the cast
Michael Caine will be in the cast
Prequel or Sequel
Tom Holland plays the main character
2025 release date
True story
Protagonist uses a gun
Will be a Bond film
Adaptation of "The Prisoner"
97
96
95
95
94
92
90
90
88
75
68
66
56
45
41
41
40
30
25
10
10
9
4
4
4
3
3
OptionVotes
NO
YES
970
959
OptionProbability
Denis Villeneuve
Christopher Nolan
Alfonso Cuaron
Steve McQueen
Greta Gerwig
Other
99
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
David
Ryan
Nolan
Cole
Nathan
Luke
Matt
Preston
Nick
57
23
11
1
1
1
1
1
1