OptionProbability
(JAP) Red flag during Qualyfing session
[BAH] Safety car during the race
[BAH] Yuki Tsunoda scores points
[BAH] Bearman scores points
[SAU] Safety Car during the race
[SAU] Tsunoda makes it into Q3
[SAU] Leclerc will get top 4 in the race
[MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying
[MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP
[MIA] Williams double points in the main GP
[MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race
[MIA] Both McLaren on the podium
[IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race
[IMO] Max Verstappen Podium Finish
[IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session
[IMO] Piastri qualifies ahead of Norris
[IMO] Tsunoda scores point(s)
[MON] Red Flag during Qualifying
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] 4+ pit stops in the first 5 laps
[MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri
[MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race
[MON] Both Ferraris finish in top 5
[SPA] Both Ferraris reach Q3
[SPA] McLaren Pole Position
[SPA] McLaren 1-2 (race)
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[CAN] Red Flag during Qualifying
[CAN] Stroll starts the race
[CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)
[CAN] Mercedes Podium
[CAN] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[AUT] Bortoleto reaches Q3
[AUT] McLaren 1-2
[AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AUT] Bortoleto finishes top 10
[GBR] Yellow Flag first lap
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] McLaren 1-2 (race)
[GBR] Non-McLaren pole position
[GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.
[GBR] Gasly finishes in top 10
[BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[BEL] McLaren double podium (main race)
[BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race
[BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[BEL] Bortoleto reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[BEL] Leclerc podium (main race)
[BEL] Bortoleto in the top 10 (main race)
[BEL] Hamilton top 10 (main race)
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
[HUN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the race
[HUN] Antonelli finishes in the points
[HUN] Bortoleto finishes in the points
[HUN] Both Aston Martins score points
[HUN] Leclerc is in first position at the end of lap 1
[NLD] Physical Safety Car during the race
[NLD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[NLD] Verstappen on the podium
[NLD] Tsunoda finishes in top 10
[ITA] New track record Set in Qualifying
[ITA] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[ITA] Non-McLaren pole position
[ITA] Hamilton finishes in top 6
[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AZE] Red flag during qualifying
[AZE] Yellow flag First Lap main race
[AZE] Norris and or Piastri Fail to finish due to an accident
[AZE] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[AZE] Non-McLaren pole position
[AZE] Mercedes on the podium (at least 1 driver)
[SGP] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[SGP] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)
[COTA] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[COTA] Physical Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car during the main race
[COTA] Verstappen wins the sprint race
[COTA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (main race)
[COTA] Leclerc finishes on the podium (main race)
[COTA] Bearman finishes in top 10 (main race)
[COTA] Hulkenberg finishes on top 10 (main race)
[MEX] all 3 tyre compounds used in main race
[MEX] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)
[MEX] At least one Ferrari on the podium
[MEX] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[MEX] Max finishes 3rd
[BRA] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[BRA] yellow flag first lap (main race)
[BRA] The same driver wins the Sprint and the GP
[BRA] McLaren pole in the SPRINT qualifying
[BRA] Antonelli Sprint podium
[BRA] Verstappen finishes the main race in the top 6
[BRA] Antonelli podium in the main race
[BRA] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 in the main race
[LAS]Verstappen finishes ahead of both McLarens
[LAS] Yellow flag first lap
[LAS] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race
[LAS] Sainz finishes in top 5 (race)
[LAS] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10 (race)
[QAT] Verstappen scores more points than Norris during the whole weekend
[QAT] Alonso scores points in the sprint race
[QAT] Alonso in top 10 (main race)
[ABU] NON-McLaren pole position
[ABU] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3
[ABU] Physical Safety Car during the race
[ABU] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race
Leave it open for upcoming GP
[ABU] Yellow flag first lap
[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention podiums
[MIA] Safety car in the main race
[ABU] Three different teams on the podium
[ABU] Verstappen, Piastri or Norris is involved in a collision causing him to DNF (engine, power unit problems etc. do not count)
[ABU] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[BEL] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention wins the race
(JAP) Safety car during the race
(JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)
(JAP) Yuki Tsunoda scores points
[JAP] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda
[BAH] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda
[BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)
[SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)
[SAU] McLaren double podium
[SAU] Bearman scores points
[MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race
[MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying
[MIA] Antonelli on the Podium
[IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris
[IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points
[MON] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)
[SPA] Virtual Safety Car during the race
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[SPA] Tsunoda goes into Q3
[SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)
[SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying
[SPA] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)
[SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)
[SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap
[CAN] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[CAN] Both Williams reach Q3
[CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points
[AUT] 3 different teams on the podium
[AUT] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[AUT] Stroll reaches Q3
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)
[AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.
[GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)
[GBR] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)
[GBR] At least one Ferrari on the podium
[GBR] Bearman finishes in top 10
[GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium
[BEL] Two or more cars DNF (main race)
[BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)
[BEL] McLaren 1-2 in the Sprint race
[BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race
[BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race
[BEL] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)
[BEL] main race is cancelled/aborted
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[HUN] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] At least two drivers DNF
[NLD] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[NLD] Exactly 18 cars finish the race
Hamilton finishes in top 7
[NLD] Yellow flag first lap
[NLD] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[NLD] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[NLD] Antonelli reaches Q3
[NLD] Both Williams reach Q3
[NLD] Red flag during qualifying
[ITA] Physical Safety during the race
[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least one)
[ITA] Yellow flag first lap
[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres needed in Race
[ITA] Both Williams reach Q3
[ITA] Ferrari on the podium (at least one driver)
[AZE] New lap record in Qualifying
[AZE] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AZE] 3 or more DNF (race)
[AZE] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the race.
[SGP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SGP] Red flag during qualifying
[SGP] Yellow flag first lap
[SGP] 1 or more teams loses both cars in the race
[SGP] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[SGP] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[SGP] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[SGP] Antonelli on the podium
[SGP] Kick Sauber scores points
[COTA] McLaren pole position in the SPRINT qualifying
[COTA] Hulkenberg top 5 in the sprint race
[COTA] Tsunoda reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[COTA] McLaren pole position in the main race qualifying
[COTA] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3 in the main race qualifying
[COTA] Impeding penalty (at least 1) during main race qualifying
[COTA] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda (main race)
[COTA] Antonelli finishes in top 5 (main race)
[COTA] 6 or more drivers fail to finish the main race
[MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MEX] Red Flag during qualifying
[MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MEX] Max wins and Oscar finishes 3rd or lower
[MEX] Yuki is send slightly airborne by someone colliding with his right rear tire
[MEX] Yellow flag first lap main race
[MEX] George Russell podium
[MEX] Verstappen takes pole
[MEX] Piastri finishes ahead of Verstappen
[MEX] Red Flag during the Race
[BRA] main race podium is both McLarens and Max in any order
[BRA] a driver from neither McLaren, RBR, Ferrari or Mercedes gets a podium in the main race
[BRA] all three WDC contenders take a part replacement penalty
[BRA] Bortoleto finishes the main race in the points
[BRA] Max finishes the main race ahead of both McLarens
[BRA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[BRA] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)
[BRA] impeding penalty during qualifying (for the main race)
[BRA] McLaren 1-2 in the SPRINT Race
[BRA] Leclerc podium in the main race
[BRA] Alonso finishes in top 10 in the main race
[LAS] Red flag during qualifying
[LAS] Physical safety car during the race
[LAS] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[LAS] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris
[LAS] A Ferrari qualifies in top 4
[LAS] One or more double-DNF (main race)
[LAS] McLaren double podium
[QAT] Verstappen scores 17 points more than Norris over whole weekend
[QAT] Exactly two cars DNF the GP
[QAT] Lando Norris wins WDC
[QAT] Verstappen and Norris make contact in the sprint or main race
[QAT] yellow flag first lap
[QAT] driver disqualified after the main race
[QAT] The same driver wins the Sprint and the main race
[QAT] Tsunoda reaches Q3 of main race qualifying
[QAT] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[QAT] Red flag during main race to clear gravel (no stranded car or significant car parts)
[QAT] Both McLarens touch and at least one of them DNFs because of it
[QAT] Mercedes on the podium (main race)
[QAT] Both Racing Bulls in top 10 (main race)
[QAT] Both Ferraris outside of top 10 (main race)
[ABU] Red flag during qualifying
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
78
73
53
53
49
41
32
20
9
8
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Verstappen - Lawson
Russel - Antonelli
Hülkenberg - Bortoleto
Norris - Leclerc
Piastri - Russel
Verstappen - Hamilton
Leclerc - Hamilton
Verstappen - Leclerc
Verstappen - Russel
Russel - Leclerc
Alonso - Stroll
Norris - Piastri
Norris - Verstappen
Piastri - Verstappen
Hamilton - Antonelli
Sainz - Albon
Ocon - Bearman
Tsunoda - Hadjar
Lawson - Antonelli
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
85
78
25
14
12
12
4
0
OptionProbability
Lando Norris (McLaren)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)
George Russel (Mercedes)
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)
Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
Jack Doohan (Alpine)
Alexander Albon (Williams)
Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)
Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)
Isack Hadjar (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)
Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)
Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)
Esteban Ocon (Haas)
Ollie Bearman (Haas)
73
26
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Julia Galef
Scott Alexander
Zvi Mowshowitz
Paul Christiano
Randall Munroe
Josh Shapiro
Jon Stewart
Peter Singer
@SemioticRivalry
Dwarkesh Patel
Gretchen Whitmer
Michelle Obama
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Sam Wendover
Spencer Greenberg
Tammy Duckworth
Kamala Harris
Emmanuel Macron
Andrew Yang
Jared Polis
Manifold Joshua
J. B. Pritzker
Satya Nadella
Aella
Katie Porter
Andrew Wiles
Andy Beshear
Gavin Newsom
@Mira
Garry Kasparov
MrBeast
William Mc Askill
Vermin Supreme
Eric Schmidt
Magnus Carlsen
Bill Gates
Raphael Warnock
Mark Cuban
Justin Trudeau
Bernie Sanders
Gordon Ramsay
@strutheo
Bryan Caplan
Ursula von der Leyen
Bill Maher
Manifold James
Sam Altman
Michael Bloomberg
Al Gore
Bryan Cranston
Kathy Hochul
Cory Booker
Blake Huber
Taylor Swift
Mitt Romney
A randomly selected active Manifold user
Manifold Austin
Jose Luis Ricon
Linus Torvalds
Warren Buffett
Keanu Reeves
Ray William Johnson
Cory Doctorow
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
LeBron James
Zach Robinson
Nikil Saval
Ding Liren
@ZacParker
SCP-999
Stannis Baratheon
Alexandr Wang
Tim Cook
Liu Bei
Jeff Bezos
Hillary Clinton
Chuck Norris
Destiny
Cao Cao
Guillaume Verdon
Emma Watson
Oprah
Rick Astley
Peter Thiel
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jimmy Carter
Anatoly Karpov
Rishi Sunak
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Anthony Fantano
Javier Milei
Nikki Haley
Sundar Pichai
Brian Tomasik
Lionel Messi
Cristiano Ronaldo
Mark Zuckerberg
Prince Harry
Jeb "Please Clap" Bush
Hunter Biden
Vivek Ramaswamy
Liz Cheney
Elon Musk
Yann Lecun
A randomly selected banned Manifold user
Joe Rogan
Tucker Carlson
Ivanka Trump
Jordan Peterson
Ben Shapiro
Sam Bankman-Fried
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
98
96
96
95
94
93
92
91
91
91
90
89
88
87
87
85
84
82
81
78
77
76
75
74
74
73
73
72
72
72
72
70
69
69
68
65
65
64
63
63
63
62
62
61
60
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
58
57
57
57
56
56
56
56
54
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
47
47
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
40
40
39
37
37
36
36
35
35
34
34
34
32
32
29
28
25
25
22
21
20
17
16
9
8
6
6
6
OptionProbability
Tage Thompson scores 40+ goals in 2024-25
Tage Thompson play 75+ games with the Sabres in 2024-25
Owen Power 40+ points in 2024-25
Sabres get to round 2 of playoffs by end of 2028
Sabres reach the Stanley Cup Finals by end of 2032
Alex Tuch 70+ points in 2024-25
Rasmus Dahlin gets the Norris Trophy in 2024-2025
Sabres are 20% on the power play in 2024-25
Sabres 10+ overtime losses in 2024-25
Sabres finish with 90+ points in 2024-25
Sabres make the playoffs in 2024-25
Devon Levi starts in 25+ Games in 2024-25
100
100
100
45
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J.D. Vance
Nikki Haley
Pete Buttigieg
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
Gavin Newsom
Marco Rubio
J.B. Pritzker
Greg Abbott
Elise Stefanik
Ron DeSantis
Gretchen Whitmer
Wes Moore
Andy Beshear
Brian Kemp
Kari Lake
Kamala Harris
Vivek Ramaswamy
Raphael Warnock
Roy Cooper
Josh Hawley
Jon Stewart
Beto O'Rourke
Mark Cuban
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Ilhan Omar
Tammy Duckworth
John Fetterman
Tim Scott
Ben Carson
Stephen Colbert
Kristi Noem
Hakeem Jeffries
Byron Donalds
Tucker Carlson
Andrew Yang
Katie Porter
Katie Britt
Michelle Obama
Matt Gaetz
Hillary Clinton
Chuck Norris
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Zvi Mowshowitz
45
31
31
23
21
19
19
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
15
15
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
8
8
7
6
4
3
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Vivek Ramaswamy
Jimmy Carter
Gavin Newsom
Gretchen Whitmer
JD Vance
Pete Buttigieg
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Stephen A. Smith
David Hogg
Spencer Cox
Jeff Jackson
Liz Cheney
Tucker Carlson
Tim Ferriss
Taylor Swift
Michelle Obama
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Chuck Norris
Tim Cook
100
100
91
87
82
80
65
50
50
50
41
23
18
9
6
6
6
4
3
OptionProbability
Will Verstappen outscore Lawson
Will Leclerc outscore Hamilton
Will Russel outscore Antonelli
Will Gasly outscore Doohan
Will Hulkenberg outscore Bortoleto
Will Gasly outscore Colapinto
Will Alonso outscore Stroll
Will Bearman outscore Ocon
Will Norris outscore Piastri
Will Sainz outscore Albon
Will Lawson outscore Adjar
Will Tsunoda outscore Hadjar
99
99
99
99
99
99
98
96
94
85
5
4
OptionProbability
Runcorn and Helsby
North East Somerset and Hanham [Dan Norris]
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich [Patrick Spencer]
Gorton and Denton [Andrew Gwynne]
Mid Norfolk [George Freeman]
Blackley and Middleton South [Graham Stringer]
Hackney North and Stoke Newington [Diane Abbott]
South Basildon and East Thurrock [James McMurdock]
Herne Bay and Sandwich [Roger Gale]
Richmond and Northallerton [Rishi Sunak]
Norwich South [Clive Lewis]
Gainsborough [Edward Leigh]
Hertsmere [Oliver Dowden]
Skipton and Ripon [Julian Smith]
Hampstead and Highgate [Tulip Siddiq]
Clacton [Nigel Farage]
Burnley [Oliver Ryan]
100
80
64
60
55
55
54
50
34
33
32
31
31
31
31
29
10
OptionProbability
Josh Turek
Zach Wahls
Nathan Sage
Jackie Norris
Other
60
30
5
3
3
OptionProbability
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?
60
60
60
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
40
40
OptionVotes
YES
NO
139
72

