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Prediction markets for Omar

Did Ilhan Omar marry her brother?

Oct 22, 9:06 PMDec 31, 10:02 PM

34.04%chance

313734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Will Ilhan Omar lose her US citizenship by the end of 2027?

Oct 16, 12:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.72%chance

151841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

432

Will Ilhan Omar lose her citizenship by the end of 2026?

Sep 19, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.89%chance

241696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will the federal government bring a criminal or civil case against Ilhan Omar over her immigration history by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

141296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a federal court filing by the US gov allege that Ilhan Omar's ex-husband is her biological sibling, by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.46%chance

131236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

841

Who will win Mexico's 2030 presidential election?

Mar 30, 5:57 AMJul 3, 11:59 PM

11037

OptionProbability

Omar García Harfuch

Samuel García

Marcelo Ebrard

Ricardo Salinas Pliego

Gerardo Fernández Noroña

Clara Brugada

Ricardo Anaya

Lilly Téllez

Alejandro "Alito" Moreno

Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas

Manolo Jiménez

Jorge Álvarez Máynez

Andrés Manuel López Beltrán

Alessandra Rojo de la Vega

Enrique de la Madrid

Mauricio Kuri

Other

Ildefonso Guajardo

Jorge Romero Herrera

María Eugenia Campos Galván

Damián Zepeda

13

8

7

7

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

Which of these things will happen in relation to Ilhan Omar in 2026?

Jan 28, 9:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10880

OptionProbability

DOJ/FBI investigates the attack

She gets heightened Capitol Security

There is another attack against her

She resigns office early

She retires from office

She is denied Capitol Security

A congressional resolution passes condemning the attack

DOJ/FBI investigates Omar for the attack

A congressional resolution passes censuring her for the attack

An impeachment resolution passes against her

There is a serious assassination attempt against her

She is assassinated

She is not re-elected

96

50

30

20

17

13

12

12

10

10

8

3

3

Will a public DNA verification, if conducted, prove that Ahmed Nur Said Elmi is Ilhan Omar's brother?

Oct 23, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.59%chance

13665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

826

Will Ilhan Omar be forcibly removed from the USA by the end of 2026?

Sep 19, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.01%chance

11657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

568

18

Will Ilhan Omar be a Member of Congress at the end of 2026?

Dec 11, 10:29 AMDec 31, 10:28 AM

84.26%chance

13579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

43

Will Ilhan Omar be a US House member on 1 Feb 2029?

Oct 17, 2:22 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

65.92%chance

5427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

645

125

Will Ilhan Omar go to prison before 2030?

Oct 24, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

21.26%chance

11173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

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