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Prediction markets for Pai

When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?

Nov 20, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3818973

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

54

52

44

35

17

0

Will a painting created by an AI sell for over $10 million at a major auction house by 2030?

May 19, 6:45 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

30.83%chance

674479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

742

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

52620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3449

306

Will credible evidence show OpenAI paid ≥100 NYC households to install indoor 360° cameras for home-activity recording?

May 24, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.11%chance

131218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1774

564

Will "Near-Instantly Aborting the Worst Pain Imagin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 6:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

65.87%chance

81155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1414

119

Can fungi feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 11:56 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

12898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

941

Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?

Oct 12, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

18866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

957

Can plants feel pleasure and pain?

Jan 24, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.36%chance

20792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

974

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.48%chance

8672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will Russia cede territory to China by 2040 as predicted by Sarah Paine?

Feb 7, 7:25 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

56.38%chance

8302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

880

Will Salvatore Pais' "UFO" patent be publicly demonstrated before 2030?

Jul 29, 2:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

14.8%chance

4256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

100

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