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Top stories

UK Says It Is Ready to Send Reassurance Force to Ukraine

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Pares

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.39%chance

72644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4431

11

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.81%chance

282493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

957

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

17.38%chance

18644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1276

907

Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?

Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.04%chance

18486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

963

will my kalanchoe hybrid seedling flower be closer to the porphyrocalyx or blossfeldiana parent?

Jan 29, 11:31 PMMar 7, 11:08 PM

9247

OptionProbability

intermediate

porphyrocalyx

entirely different

blossfeldiana

49

42

7

2

Will parents in Vermont be penalized for their child's sex transition / gender-affirming care

Jan 12, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.64%chance

6127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will "In defense of parents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 4, 12:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.74%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

985

Will an income be imputed to my co-parent before end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

By EOY 2040, will I have been parent to a human child?

Jul 21, 9:00 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.9%chance

249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

982

Will Pittsburgh's paid parental leave ordinance face legal challenge by end of 2027?

Oct 23, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will "The Missing Genre: Heroic Parenthood - You ca..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

If it passes, when will Pittsburgh's paid parental leave ordinance take effect?

Oct 23, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Apr 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2030

50

50

50

50

50

50

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