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Prediction markets for Pares
Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?
Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.82%chance
2216116
OptionVotes
17476
6645
OptionVotes
1046
956
Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?
Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM
40.23%chance
62299
OptionVotes
4086
101
Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be order to be broken up by the USA Government by EOY 2027?
Apr 16, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
73.75%chance
15894
OptionVotes
421
168
Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
18.07%chance
17593
OptionVotes
1231
916
Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?
Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
49.04%chance
18486
OptionVotes
1027
963
A sitting US President becomes a parent while in office by mid 2036
Nov 12, 4:23 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
12.77%chance
7281
OptionVotes
221
97
OptionVotes
180
55
OptionProbability
62
16
16
6
By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?)
Apr 12, 2:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.15%chance
553
OptionVotes
157
111
OptionVotes
1018
982
Will "The Missing Genre: Heroic Parenthood - You ca..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 29, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000