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Prediction markets for Pares
Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?
Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM
6.39%chance
72644
OptionVotes
4431
11
OptionVotes
1046
956
Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be order to be broken up by the USA Government by EOY 2027?
Apr 16, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
73.75%chance
15894
OptionVotes
421
168
Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
18.14%chance
18594
OptionVotes
1226
917
Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?
Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
49.04%chance
18486
OptionVotes
1027
963
A sitting supreme court justice becomes a parent while in office by mid 2036
Nov 12, 4:21 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
14.67%chance
5180
OptionVotes
189
54
Will parents in Vermont be penalized for their child's sex transition / gender-affirming care
Jan 12, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.64%chance
6127
OptionVotes
175
57
Will "In defense of parents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 4, 12:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.74%chance
2105
OptionVotes
1098
985
UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?
Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33%chance
7104
OptionVotes
142
70
OptionProbability
62
16
16
6
OptionVotes
1018
982
Will "The Missing Genre: Heroic Parenthood - You ca..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 29, 8:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000