Pares News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Pares
Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?
Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.9%chance
2116066
OptionVotes
17426
6658
Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?
Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM
473191
OptionProbability
64
44
42
41
34
26
25
23
OptionVotes
1046
956
Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?
Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM
40.23%chance
62299
OptionVotes
4086
101
Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
19.75%chance
16493
OptionVotes
1131
940
Will parents be able to store data in their children's DNA by 2070?
Aug 25, 8:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
49.04%chance
18486
OptionVotes
1027
963
Will Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, be ordered to be broken up in the USA by the end of 2025?
Jan 4, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
17.79%chance
3115
OptionVotes
215
47
By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?)
Apr 12, 2:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.15%chance
553
OptionVotes
157
111
OptionVotes
1018
982
Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Feb 26, 2:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.74%chance
15
OptionVotes
125
94
When will a person who was screened or genetically modified as an embryo file a lawsuit against their parents for doing so?
Jun 30, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33
OptionProbability
94
4
2
Will "The Pareto Best and the Curse of Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Feb 26, 2:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100