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Prediction markets for Parkins

Which UFC fighters will both remain undefeated and stay on the UFC roster through 2025?

Jun 17, 2:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

2422451

OptionProbability

Ilia Topuria

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev

Malcolm Wellmaker

Jacobe Smith

Azamat Murzakanov

Navajo Stirling

Michael Morales

Andre Lima

Aliaskhab Khizriev

Lerone Murphy

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Torrez Finney

Rafael Estevam

Mario Pinto

Nurullo Aliev

Hyun Sung Park

Farid Basharat

Khamzat Chimaev

Tallison Teixeira

Ian Machado Garry

Bo Nickal

Umar Nurmagomedov

Tatsuro Taira

Muhammad Mokaev

Sharaputdin Magomedov

Payton Talbott

Danny Barlow

Jhonata Diniz

Stewart Nicoll

Clayton Carpenter

Jean Matsumoto

Oumar Sy

Wang Cong

Raffael Cerqueira

Daniel Marcos

Tatiana Suarez

Rei Tsuruya

Mick Parkin

Hyder Amil

Diyar Nurgozhay

92

86

79

76

76

69

66

63

63

60

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

39

36

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Joe Biden ever be formally diagnosed with Parkinson's?

Jul 8, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.35%chance

206113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2664

375

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028

Apr 18, 3:55 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

94.95%chance

143162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3528

651

Will Parkinson's be curable by 2028

Aug 2, 4:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.93%chance

7426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

570

82

Well there be popular availability of a symptom relieving glove for Parkinson's by Jan 1 2026?

Dec 18, 1:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

9.41%chance

10310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

451

121

Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?

Apr 24, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.64%chance

11292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

135

Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in the EU on May 1 2035?

Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

91.1%chance

5268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

289

33

Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in California on May 1 2035?

Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

79.43%chance

6235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

115

Dr Tass, Parkinson's researcher, will be forced to leave Stanford

Aug 16, 11:03 PMJan 1, 8:00 PM

36.81%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

96

47

Will "Parkinson's Law and the Ideology of Statistics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 6, 3:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.57%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

41

A Nobel prize in medicine award statement mentions Parkinson's disease before 2037

May 1, 6:03 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.77%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

91

89

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