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Prediction markets for Patrick Collison
Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?
Jan 4, 7:18 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
7212459
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
91
81
78
75
74
73
69
68
67
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
48
46
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
41
41
41
41
41
39
39
39
39
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
30
30
28
25
23
22
18
18
17
7
5
5
OptionProbability
100
100
100
88
85
73
69
68
67
66
65
64
61
58
58
57
54
52
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
44
43
43
42
42
41
40
40
38
37
32
31
26
25
21
20
20
19
18
17
17
17
17
16
9
5
4
4
1
OptionProbability
100
28
28
28
28
26
26
25
24
20
20
20
20
20
18
18
17
17
12
12
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
7
7
5
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
71.78%chance
201532
OptionVotes
1449
734
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35.72%chance
13340
OptionVotes
1164
891
Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
65.15%chance
7311
OptionVotes
228
200
Will space governance / space colonization get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
13.64%chance
9308
OptionVotes
463
181
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
54.27%chance
8122
OptionVotes
275
169
Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
60.23%chance
6111
OptionVotes
222
153
Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
64.69%chance
5110
OptionVotes
356
226
Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
59.64%chance
643
OptionVotes
223
191