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Prediction markets for Patriks Grīva

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.01%chance

292033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

699

How many Manifold leagues in a row will I place first?

Jul 11, 11:23 AMSep 1, 11:19 AM

111636

OptionProbability

1

2

3+

0

53

31

12

4

Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?

Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.26%chance

181633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

852

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

321333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

951

Will handheld or desktop monitors become obsolete by the end of 2025?

Jul 30, 6:29 PMDec 31, 8:01 PM

8.39%chance

141270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1671

894

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28.41%chance

121096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

32.44%chance

121057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

696

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Feb 16, 6:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.04%chance

10942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

463

50

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

Jun 18, 6:38 PMJun 18, 6:38 PM

70.11%chance

4700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

656

Will Elon Musk become president (or some other leadership role) of Mars before 2040?

May 15, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.65%chance

7513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

24

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.23%chance

13446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1169

944

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