OptionProbability
Patty Murray (1993)
Mike Crapo (1999)
Ron Wyden (1996)
Chuck Schumer (1999)
Jack Reed (1997)
Susan Collins (1997)
Chuck Grassley (1981)
Dick Durbin (1997)
Mitch McConnell (1985)
25
19
17
15
9
3
1
Connecticut (Incumbent - (D) Richard Blumenthal)
California (Incumbent - (D) Alex Padilla)
Vermont (Incumbent - (D) Peter Welch)
Illinois (Incumbent - (D) Tammy Duckworth)
Washington (Incumbent - (D) Patty Murray)
Hawaii (Incumbent - (D) Brian Schatz)
Maryland (Incumbent - (D) Chris Van Hollen)
New York (Incumbent - (D) Chuck Schumer)
Oregon (Incumbent - (D) Ron Wyden)
Colorado (Incumbent - (D) Michael Bennet)
New Hampshire (Incumbent - (D) Maggie Hassan)
Arizona (Incumbent - (D) Mark Kelly)
Pennsylvania (Incumbent - (D) John Fetterman)
Georgia (Incumbent - (D) Raphael Warnock)
Wisconsin (Incumbent - (R) Ron Johnson)
Nevada (Incumbent - (D) Catherine Cortez Masto)
North Carolina (Incumbent - (R) Ted Budd)
Ohio (Incumbent - TBD 2026 Special Election)
Iowa (Incumbent - (R) Chuck Grassley)
Alaska (Incumbent - (R) Lisa Murkowski)
Kansas (Incumbent - (R) Jerry Moran)
South Carolina (Incumbent -(R) Tim Scott)
Utah (Incumbent - (R) Mike Lee)
Florida (Incumbent - TBD 2026 Special Election)
Missouri (Incumbent - (R) Eric Schmitt)
Indiana (Incumbent - (R) Todd Young)
North Dakota (Incumbent - (R) John Hoeven)
Arkansas (Incumbent - (R) John Boozman)
Idaho (Incumbent - (R) Mike Crapo)
Kentucky (Incumbent - (R) Rand Paul)
Louisiana (Incumbent - (R) John Kennedy)
Oklahoma (Incumbent - (R) James Lankford)
South Dakota (Incumbent - (R) John Thune)
Alabama (Incumbent - (R) Katie Britt)
94
93
92
90
89
87
74
67
66
65
61
44
35
34
27
20
14
12
10
8
7
11-14 win
10 or less win
15(all of them do)
52
40
