Paul News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Paul
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
Feb 4, 2:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.51%chance
659497
OptionVotes
3685
593
OptionVotes
3609
631
OptionVotes
3576
770
Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027
Nov 2, 9:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
26.01%chance
343538
OptionVotes
1352
821
OptionVotes
952
888
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM
33.35%chance
241806
OptionVotes
1355
713
OptionVotes
958
874
Will Logan Paul spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?
Dec 29, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.08%chance
201434
OptionVotes
1024
981
OptionVotes
2243
446
Will Jake Paul and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2026?
Jul 28, 1:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.29%chance
12681
OptionVotes
1400
864
Will Paul Christiano play Starcraft 2 again and place as Gold League or higher by 2030?
Apr 29, 2:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
23.58%chance
140
OptionVotes
110
48
OptionVotes
105
78