OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Santa is rigged
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Groundhog Day is rigged
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
John McAfee didn't kill himself
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
The CIA killed JFK
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Bush did 9/11
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Princess Diana was assassinated
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Human didnt evolve from apes
Exercise is bad for your health
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
91
90
89
85
84
80
76
75
74
74
71
70
69
67
55
52
51
50
46
46
44
42
42
41
40
40
39
39
38
38
37
35
35
34
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
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17
17
17
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15
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15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
The Guardian
Forbes
CNN
San Francisco Chronicle
Max Tegmark
Yoshua Bengio
Vitalik Buterin
The New Yorker
Carl Feynman
Emmett Shear
Bruce Schneier
George Church
Scott Aaronson
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ben Bernanke
Stephen Fry
Tim Urban
Grimes
Scott Alexander
Booklist
Matthew Yglesias
A former Fed Chair
The Times
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Publishers Weekly
A professor of a Chinese university
Ezra Klein
A Science editorial
Keach Hagey
Neel Nanda
Judea Pearl
Eric Schmidt
At least five Nobel laureates
A former US Secretary of Treasury
A former US Secretary of State
Kurzgesagt
The Washington Post
The Economist
Foreign Affairs
Geoffrey Hinton
Shane Legg
Chris Olah
Any five current members of the UK Parliament
Christine Peterson
Evan Hubinger
A former US Secretary of Commerce
CNN editorial
A Scientific American editorial
The New York Times Book Review
Gillian Hadfield
Daron Acemoglu
Karen Hao
Gwern
roon
Kevin Roose
Billy Perrigo
Telegraph
NPR
Politico
Vox
Rolling Stone
A former US Secretary of Energy
Helen Toner
António Guterres
Stuart Russell
Nick Bostrom
WIRED
IEEE Spectrum
Dario Amodei
Financial Times
Bloomberg Businessweek
Time
Mira Murati
Peter Norvig
John Schulman
David Chalmers
Dwarkesh Patel
Patrick McKenzie
Peter Singer
Manifold
Geoffrey Irving
A review in The Atlantic
A current Fed Chair
A Nature editorial
Elon Musk
The Wall Street Journal
Yuval Noah Harari
Noam Chomsky
A New Scientist editorial
BBC
Associated Press
Ilya Sutskever
Vanity Fair
King Charles
A high-ranking Chinese government official
Toby Ord
Greg Egan
A current US Secretary of Treasury
Jimmy Fallon
Fox News
A current US Secretary of Commerce
Bill Gates
Ray Kurzweil
Demis Hassabis
Anthropic
Barack Obama
JD Vance
Reuters
Mustafa Suleyman
Joe Rogan
A current US Secretary of Energy
A current pope
Satya Nadella
Tim Cook
Kamala Harris
Terence Tao
A current UK prime minister
Ivanka Trump
Tucker Carlson
Tim Berners-Lee
Ursula von der Leyen
Daniela Amodei
Any five current United States senators
A current US Secretary of State
Mr. Beast
Benjamin Netanyahu
RFK Jr
Xi Jinping
Richard Sutton
John Oliver
OpenAI
DeepMind
Donald J. Trump
Sam Altman
Yann LeCun
Jeff Bezos
Jensen Huang
Bill Clinton
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Vladimir Putin
Peter Thiel
Taylor Swift
Lex Fridman
Joe Biden
JK Rowling
Alexandr Wang
Narendra Modi
Kelsey Piper
Any five current United States representatives
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Other
Geoffrey Hinton
Ilya Sutskever
Noam Shazeer
Alan Turing
Alec Radford
Daniel Hillis
Ben Goertzle
Yann LeCun
Demis Hassabis
Paul Christiano
Charles Babbage
Yoshua Bengio
Jürgen Schmidhuber
John Schulman
Noam Brown
Liang Wenfeng
Alex Krizhevsky
Donald Knuth
George Boole
Kaiming He
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Marvin Minsky
Judea Pearl
Raymond Solomonoff
Andrew Ng
Fei-Fei Li
Dario Amodei
David Silver
Andrej Karpathy
@jim
24
18
11
8
5
5
5
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2001
27
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1611
857
OptionProbability
SZA
Taylor Swift
FKA Twigs
The Black Keys
clipping
Playboi Carti
Chappell Roan
Coolio
Bizarrap
Kanye West
Ice Spice
Green Day
Beyonce
Eunuchs
J. Cole
Billie Eilish
NxWorries (aka Anderson .Paak & Knowledge)
Tinashe
Lil Dicky
Victoria Monet
Jack Black
Scowl
Datura Lacroye
Brakence
MIKE
Vampire Weekend
Maya Hawke
Childish Gambino
Kanye West (for real)
Linkin Park
Muse
Mount Eerie
Radiohead
Pearl Jam
Dua Lipa
Poppy
Jeff Mangum
Charli XCX
Justice
St Vincent
100
100
100
100
100
100
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
15
14
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
6
3
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1246
803
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1357
910
OptionVotes
YES
NO
289
35
OptionVotes
YES
NO
95
53
