OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Dead Internet theory
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The CIA killed JFK
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Human didnt evolve from apes
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
China made covid 19 in a lab
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
A cure for cancer has already been found
Princess Diana was assassinated
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Bush did 9/11
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
QAnon
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
China was not genociding Uyghurs
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
95
91
84
83
82
80
76
75
75
74
73
71
70
70
69
59
52
50
50
48
47
46
46
45
45
43
42
41
40
37
33
33
32
31
31
31
31
31
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Max Tegmark
Emmett Shear
Bruce Schneier
George Church
Scott Aaronson
Daniel Kokotajlo
Ben Bernanke
Stephen Fry
Tim Urban
Grimes
Scott Alexander
A former Fed Chair
Neel Nanda
A professor of a Chinese university
Stuart Russell
Yoshua Bengio
Toby Ord
Geoffrey Hinton
Carl Feynman
Vitalik Buterin
Yuval Noah Harari
Nick Bostrom
Dwarkesh Patel
Kevin Roose
Geoffrey Irving
Billy Perrigo
Manifold
Helen Toner
Gwern
Ezra Klein
Evan Hubinger
Patrick McKenzie
Publishers Weekly
Vox
Christine Peterson
Keach Hagey
Bill Gates
Joe Rogan
San Francisco Chronicle
Booklist
NPR
Politico
Lex Fridman
Tucker Carlson
The Economist
Matthew Yglesias
David Chalmers
Peter Singer
A former US Secretary of Treasury
A former US Secretary of State
Time
Any five current members of the UK Parliament
A former US Secretary of Energy
A former US Secretary of Commerce
WIRED
Gillian Hadfield
Karen Hao
A review in The Atlantic
Telegraph
Kurzgesagt
The New York Times Book Review
Peter Norvig
At least five Nobel laureates
Rolling Stone
The New Yorker
A Science editorial
The Guardian
Ray Kurzweil
John Schulman
A current pope
Financial Times
Bloomberg Businessweek
Forbes
A New Scientist editorial
BBC
Eric Schmidt
A current US Secretary of Treasury
John Oliver
IEEE Spectrum
Vanity Fair
Elon Musk
Mustafa Suleyman
A current UK prime minister
Judea Pearl
António Guterres
Foreign Affairs
Barack Obama
A Scientific American editorial
Anthropic
A Nature editorial
The Washington Post
Associated Press
Any five current United States representatives
The Wall Street Journal
Shane Legg
Ilya Sutskever
roon
Alexandr Wang
Daron Acemoglu
A high-ranking Chinese government official
Reuters
RFK Jr
Ivanka Trump
Narendra Modi
Dario Amodei
Joe Biden
Terence Tao
OpenAI
CNN
Any five current United States senators
Peter Thiel
Benjamin Netanyahu
Jimmy Fallon
Demis Hassabis
Mira Murati
Richard Sutton
A current Fed Chair
Ursula von der Leyen
DeepMind
JD Vance
Daniela Amodei
Jensen Huang
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Satya Nadella
Greg Egan
A current US Secretary of Energy
Bill Clinton
JK Rowling
Noam Chomsky
Fox News
Chris Olah
A current US Secretary of Commerce
A current US Secretary of State
Donald J. Trump
Mr. Beast
Vladimir Putin
Tim Cook
Kamala Harris
King Charles
Xi Jinping
Taylor Swift
Yann LeCun
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
90
85
84
83
76
76
75
72
69
68
67
66
66
62
58
57
57
56
54
54
53
52
50
49
46
44
44
44
44
43
43
42
41
40
39
39
39
37
37
37
37
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
32
30
28
27
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
22
22
20
20
20
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
17
16
16
15
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
OptionProbability
Other
Geoffrey Hinton
Ilya Sutskever
Noam Shazeer
Alec Radford
Daniel Hillis
Alan Turing
Ben Goertzle
Yann LeCun
Demis Hassabis
Paul Christiano
Charles Babbage
Jürgen Schmidhuber
John Schulman
Noam Brown
Liang Wenfeng
Alex Krizhevsky
Donald Knuth
George Boole
Kaiming He
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Marvin Minsky
Judea Pearl
Raymond Solomonoff
Yoshua Bengio
Andrew Ng
Fei-Fei Li
Dario Amodei
David Silver
Andrej Karpathy
@jim
23
20
12
8
5
5
4
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1151
41
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1038
811
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1252
799
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1357
910
OptionProbability
SZA
FKA Twigs
clipping
Playboi Carti
Muse
Charli XCX
Chappell Roan
Victoria Monet
Jack Black
Scowl
Kanye West
Ice Spice
Datura Lacroye
Green Day
Brakence
MIKE
Vampire Weekend
Beyonce
The Black Keys
Eunuchs
J. Cole
Billie Eilish
Justice
NxWorries (aka Anderson .Paak & Knowledge)
Dua Lipa
Tinashe
Childish Gambino
Poppy
Maya Hawke
Lil Dicky
Kanye West (for real)
Taylor Swift
Linkin Park
Mount Eerie
Radiohead
Pearl Jam
Coolio
Bizarrap
St Vincent
Jeff Mangum
100
100
100
100
80
77
65
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
40
40
34
31
30
25
25
20
20
20
8
OptionVotes
YES
NO
347
29
OptionVotes
YES
NO
95
53