Per Widerström News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Approval < 35%

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

trump gets hospitalized

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Fair elections in 2028

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

USA experiences a recession.

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump visits Africa

Congress overrides a presidential veto

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

A major war in Asia occurs

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Joe Biden dies

Trump says a racial slur

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Trump and Obama shake hands

Tesla

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

New national park created

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Repeal obamacare

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

War is declared against another nation

10% fewer government agencies

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump gets covid (again)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Approval < 25%

American Manned Lunar Landing

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump gets shot

54 or more Republican senate seats

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Record level unemployment

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump dies

Another pandemic

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump runs for a third term

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump is seen shirtless

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Starship lands on Mars

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Constitutional Amendment

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

NO

call someone retarded through text or speech

Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

A literal red line on the ground/floor

complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

Stays alive

explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

pass 500 or more executive orders

complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

new blockade of a country

request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

put his name on a ship in the navy

have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

have a journalist arrested

Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

Revoke ten or more citizenships

issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

Causes Tina Peters' early release

Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

ten or more protestors killed during term

sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

File lawsuit against a congressperson

complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

Nominate a family member to high office

Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

Dep

Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

add a new federal holiday in his honor

Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

Raise the retirement age for social security

stops all sanctions on Russia

Raise contribution limits (FEC)

Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

resume buying oil from Russia

revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

force a former president to testify before Congress

have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

Postpone the elections due to emergency

Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

Enact price controls on groceries

Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

Add a citizenship question to the census

End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

host putin at mar a lago

Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

Prosecute someone for flag burning

classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

department of defense renamed to Dept of war

Pardon himself

delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

Get rid of Noaa.

Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

Says 6 7 (or variant)

enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

Causes derek chauvin's early release

Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

Call for the end of the House of Reps

Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

take control of a part of greenland

Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

repeal Obamacare

pardon derek chauvin

admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

debank a congressperson governor or mayor

expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

actually disinter bodies from another country

Call for the end of child marriage

Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

orders arrests of any Biden family member

Annex any part of Mexico

Pardon a convicted pedophile

cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

Replace his Vice President

confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

Salute Putin

Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

expand the borders of the usa

remove tax exempt from only certain religions

have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

threaten to disinter bodies from another country

Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

fauci in jail at least one week

take control of a part of ukraine

confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

add a new state

pardon george santos

take state ownership in an airline

Attack a NATO ally.

Pardon p diddy

Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

ends black history month

Implement a federal age of consent

Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

declares a white history month

Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

Call for the end of gay marriage

Announce he’s running for a third term

Fully or partially privatize Social Security

Implement a federal abortion ban

make statements that are negative about labubu

Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

fully nationalize an airline

Call for the end of the Senate

Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

ban trans people from holding federal offices

stop California from hosting the Olympics

Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

Pardon ghislaine maxwell

change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

change the borders of a state

breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

repeal an amendment

Withdraw from NATO

give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

Call for the end of interracial marriage

After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

bans anime

bans 6 7

all time high unemployment reached

cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

Wearing a white dress after labor day

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Make banana bread

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Add garlic

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

put ketchup and cheese on it

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Brush on an egg wash

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Make the bread taste good

Bake for 15 more minutes

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Taste the bread

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Make the bread great again

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Increase water by 50 g

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Strawberry jelly filling

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Add caffeine to the bread

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

it needs more salt

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

YES

US sends at least $10B of arms to Taiwan

GDP per capita still >2x China in 2050

Successful invasion by PRC

Military conflict with PRC involving at least 1 million deaths on each side

Unsuccessful invasion by PRC

Formal diplomatic relations with the US

Taiwan elects pro-unification government

Formal diplomatic relations with any country that simultaneously has formal diplomatic relations with the PRC for at least 1 month

Officially joining the UN

Peaceful unification with PRC

Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons

Fedez e Masini - Male necessario

Tommaso Paradiso - I romantici

Arisa - Magica favola -

Chiello - Ti penso sempre

Eddie Brock - Avvoltoi

Enrico Nigiotti - Ogni volta che non so volare

Ermal Meta - Stella stellina

Francesco Renga - Il meglio di me

Fulminacci - Stupida sfortuna

Leo Gassmann - Naturale

Levante - Sei tu

Luchè - Labirinto

Malika Ayane - Animali notturni

Mara Sattei - Le cose che non sai di me

Maria Antonietta e Colombre - La felicità e basta

Michele Bravi - Prima o poi

Nayt - Prima che

Sal Da Vinci - Per sempre sì

Sayf - Tu mi piaci tanto

Serena Brancale - Qui con me

Tredici Pietro - Uomo che cade

Dargen D'Amico - Ai ai

Bambole di pezza - Resta con me

Ditonellapiaga - Che fastidio!

Elettra Lamborghini - Voilà

J-Ax - Italia Starter Pack

LDA e AKA 7even - Poesie clandestine

Patty Pravo - Opera

Raf - Ora e per sempre

Scores over 23.5 points in Week 1

Wins a preseason game

Two players with 10+ Total Sacks

Joe Mixon averages more than 4 yards per carry

The team moves or is renamed before 2050

Drafts at least one QB in the NFL Draft

Dependents can stay on parents' insurance until age 26

Guaranteed issue (protection from discrimination by insurers for preexisting conditions)

Per-state insurance exchanges

Nutrition labelling requirements

Prescription drugs as essential services (must be covered by insurance)

No deductibles/co-pay for vaccinations

Medicaid expansion

Bundled payments for Medicare

Coverage for contraceptive methods

Premium subsidies for households between 100-400% of federal poverty level using insurance exchanges

Employer mandate for businesses with >50 employees

>4x FLOP/s per dollar

<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar

0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar

2-4x FLOP/s per dollar

Between $500k and $1mm per MWe

Between $2mm and $3mm

Less than $500k per MWe

Between $1mm and $2mm