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Top stories

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Peter Wells

Something Happens (YES) VS Nothing Ever Happens (NO) 2024-2025

May 5, 12:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.28%chance

264689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4710

655

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.06%chance

233123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3255

688

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

191089

OptionProbability

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky

Great Gatsby

Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

99

85

75

66

65

64

61

57

56

50

50

50

50

43

19

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

10965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Well there be popular availability of a symptom relieving glove for Parkinson's by Jan 1 2026?

Dec 18, 1:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

4.13%chance

11710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

851

95

Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

14.86%chance

9344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

491

223

Left to Suffer Stock

May 15, 2:23 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

120

OptionProbability

NO

YES

70

36

Recommend me podcasts about the future

Apr 17, 6:52 PM

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