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Prediction markets for Peter Wells
Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?
Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
6.09%chance
243124
OptionVotes
3239
689
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63%chance
202212
OptionVotes
1307
768
OptionProbability
99
85
75
66
65
64
64
61
61
57
50
50
43
41
19
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.82%chance
11970
OptionVotes
1368
731
[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?
Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
18.25%chance
18894
OptionVotes
1259
922
Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
14.86%chance
9344
OptionVotes
491
223
OptionProbability
70
36