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Prediction markets for Pick

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Jun 3, 7:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3811821

OptionProbability

None (before 2124)

Other

Kiev

another Ukrainian city besides Kyiv (e.g., Kharkiv, Odessa, or Dnipro)

Delhi

Tehran

New York City

Seoul

Brussels

Tel Aviv

Moscow

Taipei

Beijing

Washington DC

Islamabad

Karachi

46

21

8

6

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.33%chance

23994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

822

Will a Starship land on Mars before the MSR samples are picked up?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.87%chance

13881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

303

88

Chess Players Stock Market (Pick your favorite professional players)

Jan 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13669

OptionProbability

Hikaru Nakamura

Magnus Carlsen

D Gukesh

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Vincent Kaymer

Anish Giri

Viswanathan Anand

Fabiano Caruana

Ding Liren

Alireza Firouzja

Wesley So

R Praggnanandhaa

Vidit Gujrathi

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Other

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Sergey Karjakin

Parham Maghsoodloo

Wei Yi

Arjun Erigaisi

Maxime Vachier-Legrave

Alexander Grischuk

Lê Quang Liêm

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Veselin Topalov

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

22

13

12

11

6

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.58%chance

8389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

841

Will all 5 major English dictionaries pick an AI-related Word of the Year for 2026?

Jan 11, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.3%chance

13385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

381

80

Will Rivian R2 earn IIHS Top Safety Pick+?

Apr 22, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

37.21%chance

4333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

770

Will >10% of raspberries be picked by robots before end of 2030?

Feb 16, 3:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.47%chance

8242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Will the NFL institute a Draft Lottery to deter teams from tanking to receive the number one pick before the 2033 draft?

Jan 5, 9:35 PMApr 30, 3:59 AM

23%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

109

Of the 10 picked CoolFold Financial portfolio stocks, which will perform the worst?

Nov 16, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2152

OptionProbability

Other

to be picked

86

14

Of the 10 picked CoolFold Financial portfolio stocks, which will perform the best?

Nov 16, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2149

OptionProbability

Other

to be picked

86

14

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

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