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Prediction markets for Pick

Who will be the #1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

Apr 13, 4:34 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

3436021

OptionProbability

AJ Dybantsa

Cameron Boozer

Darryn Peterson

OJ Simpson

Other

99

0

0

0

0

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Jun 3, 7:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3711811

OptionProbability

None (before 2124)

Other

Kiev

another Ukrainian city besides Kyiv (e.g., Kharkiv, Odessa, or Dnipro)

Delhi

Tehran

New York City

Seoul

Brussels

Tel Aviv

Moscow

Taipei

Beijing

Washington DC

Islamabad

Karachi

45

21

8

6

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the future be better? [Pick your choices]

Mar 14, 12:53 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

344903

OptionProbability

Less infants will die

People will live longer

We will be richer

Less people will die in wars

CO2 pollution will slow down

98

97

94

73

68

Chess Players Stock Market (Pick your favorite professional players)

Jan 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13669

OptionProbability

Hikaru Nakamura

Magnus Carlsen

D Gukesh

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Vincent Kaymer

Anish Giri

Viswanathan Anand

Fabiano Caruana

Ding Liren

Alireza Firouzja

Wesley So

R Praggnanandhaa

Vidit Gujrathi

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Other

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Sergey Karjakin

Parham Maghsoodloo

Wei Yi

Arjun Erigaisi

Maxime Vachier-Legrave

Alexander Grischuk

Lê Quang Liêm

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Veselin Topalov

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

22

13

12

11

6

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.19%chance

22594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

962

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.58%chance

8389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

841

If Trump wins the 2024 election, will his VP pick become president before the 2028 election?

Jul 31, 8:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.77%chance

7383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

Will Rivian R2 earn IIHS Top Safety Pick+?

Apr 22, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

39.06%chance

4283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Will >10% of raspberries be picked by robots before end of 2030?

Feb 16, 3:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.47%chance

8242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Of the 10 picked CoolFold Financial portfolio stocks, which will perform the worst?

Nov 16, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2152

OptionProbability

Other

to be picked

86

14

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

Which seal design will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:22 PMAug 30, 7:20 PM

455

OptionProbability

Whale and bird design

Hill and stars design

Chickadee and feathers design

Other

36

31

18

15

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