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Prediction markets for Pick

Will the Senate vote down any of Trump's cabinet picks in 2025?

Nov 13, 5:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.17%chance

3116915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5131

383

What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)

Jun 3, 7:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2810401

OptionProbability

None (before 2124)

Other

Delhi

Seoul

New York City

Tel Aviv

Kiev

Moscow

Taipei

Beijing

Washington DC

Islamabad

Karachi

Tehran

56

27

7

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Which Japanese honkaku authors will be picked up by Pushkin Vertigo before the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 8:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44661

OptionProbability

Arisugawa

Yuuki

Imamura

Houjou

Yamaguchi

Mitsuda

Yonezawa

Aosaki

Madoy

Norizuki

Maya

Abiko

Nakai

Nikaidou

no one (not even someone not listed here)

100

100

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

0

Will the Apple Vision Pro 2 require the customer to pick it up from the Apple store / have an in-store fitting process?

Jan 18, 5:25 PMDec 25, 11:59 PM

4.93%chance

141443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

895

I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028

Aug 3, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.27%chance

20564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

960

Derik Queen for Asa Newell and what # pick in the 2026 NBA draft (via NOP to ATL)?

Jun 29, 7:07 PMJun 29, 10:59 PM

3439

OptionProbability

4-6 (Bad trade)

2-3 (Really bad for NOP)

7-10 (somewhat defensible)

1 (Worst case for NOP)

11-15 (slight overpay)

16-23 (fair trade)

24-30 (Pelicans won)

33

24

18

13

7

3

2

If Trump wins the 2024 election, will his VP pick become president before the 2028 election?

Jul 31, 8:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.61%chance

6378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will SpaceX pick up and return at least 10 starlink satellites to Earth by mid 2031?

May 12, 7:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

36.25%chance

8339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

869

Will >10% of raspberries be picked by robots before end of 2030?

Feb 16, 3:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.47%chance

8242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

Will the NFL institute a Draft Lottery to deter teams from tanking to receive the number one pick before the 2033 draft?

Jan 5, 9:35 PMApr 30, 3:59 AM

28.85%chance

8173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

122

Which flag design will Massachusetts pick?

Aug 30, 7:20 PMAug 30, 7:12 PM

10127

OptionProbability

White five petal flower design

Blue hills design

Crimson turkey feathers design

Other

65

18

12

6

Will "Do not hand off what you cannot pick up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.32%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

992

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