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Top stories

BoE’s Pill Sees Neutral Rate Around 2–4%, Urges Caution

Authors

3

1 day ago

BoE’s Pill Warns Medium-Term Inflation Risks Are Creeping Higher

Authors

4

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Pill

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

47789897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7410

4932

Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?

Jan 26, 8:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.92%chance

278721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3013

332

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.33%chance

44262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13530

7391

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.81%chance

273910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3422

343

Will an oral insulin pill be publicly available before the end of 2025?

Dec 20, 9:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

272605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

901

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Aug 3, 2:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

111910

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2025

2025

2023

2024

85

13

1

1

By the end of what year will there be a male anticonception pill on the market (approved in both the US and the EU)

Jan 22, 7:30 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

251756

OptionProbability

Other

2030

2029

2028

2026

2031

2024

35

26

13

9

8

7

1

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.73%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

110

Will Robin Hanson get AGI-pilled in 2025?

Jan 23, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.1%chance

14477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will there exist a popular piece of media featuring the Twitter Pill Dilemma by 2026?

Aug 16, 10:19 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

19.13%chance

10161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

366

149

Will the Comstock Act be used against the shipping of abortion pills nationally before 2028?

Mar 30, 4:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.47%chance

990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

233

Will Now Pharmaceuticals package any pills in a non-plastic container by EOY 2025?

Sep 11, 2:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.23%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

58

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