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Prediction markets for Po

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.86%chance

25562230203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10710

2092

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

262160770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

949

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

12858229

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

59

40

1

Will Polymarket launch a stablecoin before 2027?

Jul 22, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

2318351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17567

5700

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12472

8018

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

103591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11917

8391

Spain's population end of 2026? [in MM]

Jan 11, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.9%chance

72151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5098

4992

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

53.03%chance

221742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10626

9411

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Will "Self-fulfilling misalignment data might be po..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.43%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

970

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