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Prediction markets for Po

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.93%chance

27022466295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14996

1282

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

210151951

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

Who will be the next pope after Leo XIV?

May 6, 3:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13981289

OptionProbability

Other

Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Luis Antonio Tagle

Mykola Bychok

Lazarus You Heung-sik

Pietro Parolin

José Tolentino de Mendonça

Robert Prevost

Donald Trump

No one

Giorgio Marengo

Francis Leo

Paulo Cezar Costa

Américo Aguiar

François-Xavier Bustillo

Joe Biden

82

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

35.64%chance

7262178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

946

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.19%chance

5042151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10448

9571

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.45%chance

282492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10933

9146

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.68%chance

61179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10138

9864

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.17%chance

41114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10035

9968

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.45%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10090

9911

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Will "Self-fulfilling misalignment data might be po..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.81%chance

356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

998

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