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Prediction markets for Po

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.57%chance

26512361424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14214

1386

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

522372928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

15484391

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

35.64%chance

7162156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

946

By end of 2028, will PornHub have a category for AI-generated porn?

Apr 12, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.78%chance

26955393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

974

957

Will Polymarket IPO before 2028?

Jul 22, 10:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.43%chance

3739731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10929

9150

Will Polymarket launch a stablecoin before 2027?

Jul 22, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.4%chance

2518604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17614

5685

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

143736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11916

8392

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.86%chance

252362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11023

9072

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Will "Self-fulfilling misalignment data might be po..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

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