Power News

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Mar 13, 8:09 AMMar 13, 8:02 AM

16677010

OptionProbability

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mojtaba Khomeini

Donald Trump

Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

Jan 6, 2:16 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.94%chance

3955132

OptionVotes

YES

31934

3136

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

12645655

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

Other

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.14%chance

226652

OptionVotes

YES

12736

7852

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.37%chance

563948

OptionProbability

YES

1600

882

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2028 US elections?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMNov 8, 12:00 PM

43415

OptionProbability

D President, D Senate, D House (Democratic trifecta)

R President, D Senate, R House

R President, R Senate, R House (Republican trifecta)

D President, D Senate, R House

R President, D Senate, D House

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.45%chance

282492

OptionVotes

YES

10933

9146

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2030 US elections?

Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 6, 12:00 PM

22370

OptionProbability

D President, D Senate, D House (Democratic trifecta)

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

R President, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House (Republican trifecta)

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, R House

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2032 US elections?

Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 3, 12:00 PM

1800

OptionProbability

D President, D Senate, D House (Democratic trifecta)

R President, R Senate, R House (Republican trifecta)

D President, D Senate, R House

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

D President, R Senate, R House

R President, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2034 US elections?

Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

D President, R Senate, R House

R President, D Senate, D House

D President, D Senate, D House (Democratic trifecta)

R President, R Senate, R House (Republican trifecta)

D President, D Senate, R House

R President, R Senate, D House

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, R House

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2036 US elections?

Nov 5, 11:19 PMNov 5, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

D President, D Senate, D House (Democratic trifecta)

R President, R Senate, R House (Republican trifecta)

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, D Senate, R House

Power News

Prediction markets for Power

Prediction markets for Power

Prediction markets for Power

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

When will fusion power become viable?

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2028 US elections?

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2030 US elections?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2032 US elections?

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2034 US elections?

Balance of power: who will control the presidency, Senate and House after the 2036 US elections?

Latest stories