Power News

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

352484200

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.39%chance

243151365

OptionVotes

YES

1905

525

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

35.64%chance

7262178

OptionVotes

YES

992

946

Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

Jan 6, 2:16 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

7.29%chance

3851414

OptionVotes

YES

35694

2805

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Mar 13, 8:09 AMMar 13, 8:02 AM

13744843

OptionProbability

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mojtaba Khomeini

Donald Trump

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

12543900

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

Other

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

20139190

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.1%chance

184504

OptionVotes

YES

12481

8012

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.37%chance

563948

OptionProbability

YES

1600

882

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.4%chance

272482

OptionVotes

YES

10923

9155

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

YES

1013

926

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

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Prediction markets for Power

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Prediction markets for Power

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

When will fusion power become viable?

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

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