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Founders Fund Backs Hadrian With $260 Million Series C

12 days ago

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

149198902

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

1027

949

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

Jun 10, 2:47 AMJan 31, 7:59 AM

11937466

OptionProbability

6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office

5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028

2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated

3. Trump wins in 2024, election process in 2028 is significantly changed

8. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, but power transition doesn't happen on schedule

7. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028, on Jan 20 some states and/or federal agencies recognize one candidate, while others — another

Other

1. Trump doesn't win in 2024

4. Trump wins in 2024, there is no agreement among independent observers as to who wins the election in 2028

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Jun 28, 4:42 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM

19231439

OptionProbability

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

Trump leaves office when his term ends

Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails

Trump supporters kill or hospitalise someone trying to prevent/protest him leaving

Trump leaves office early (e.g. via impeachment or he dies)

Trump remains in office after his term is up

Trump isn't elected (or fails to take office)

Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Nov 11, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.49%chance

15022811

OptionVotes

YES

1449

1124

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

Apr 26, 3:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.71%chance

434708

OptionVotes

YES

1375

847

When will fusion power become viable?

Dec 4, 6:12 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

68.89%chance

563928

OptionProbability

YES

1580

891

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

10867

9202

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

YES

1013

926

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.99%chance

211304

OptionVotes

YES

11052

9048

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

Mar 13, 3:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.95%chance

25852

OptionVotes

YES

2204

1770

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

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Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?

When will fusion power become viable?

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Latest stories

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