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Prediction markets for Quan

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8931570

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

"Shut up and calculate"

Other

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Indivisible stochastic processes

Copenhagen

Superdeterminism

Something else

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

36

28

18

6

5

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

When will Quantum computing become viable?

Dec 4, 6:14 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

23.05%chance

8012475

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2467

937

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36%chance

5312348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

710

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

67%chance

407977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

Aug 29, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.92%chance

455195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

770

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.97%chance

493625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

863

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.82%chance

323407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2327

168

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

222962

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.7%chance

201122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

965

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

73.06%chance

14725

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1645

852

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

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