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Prediction markets for Quan

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9134129

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Other

Indivisible stochastic processes

Copenhagen

Superdeterminism

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

59

26

5

5

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.74%chance

5813755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

653

When will Quantum computing become viable?

Dec 4, 6:14 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

26.45%chance

8412984

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2246

1023

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

65.84%chance

418549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

720

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72%chance

414220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1635

331

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223078

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

332083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

1117

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.16%chance

22378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

788

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

Quanto tempo dura o namora da Thati Azevedo

Jan 27, 7:33 PMDec 31, 7:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

1º trimestre 2026

2º trimestre 2026

3º trimestre 2026

4º trimestre 2026

25

25

25

25

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