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Prediction markets for Quan

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9334843

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Other

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Superdeterminism

Copenhagen

Indivisible stochastic processes

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

49

33

7

4

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.03%chance

6013835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

733

When will Quantum computing become viable?

Dec 4, 6:14 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.94%chance

8413130

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1986

1128

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

65.84%chance

418549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

720

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

30

26

13

12

10

8

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

332083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

1117

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.98%chance

211212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

968

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

24591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

819

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

Quanto tempo dura o namora da Thati Azevedo

Jan 27, 7:33 PMDec 31, 7:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

1º trimestre 2026

2º trimestre 2026

3º trimestre 2026

4º trimestre 2026

25

25

25

25

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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