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Prediction markets for Quan

Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?

Jul 26, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9031646

OptionProbability

wikipedia will not be clarified by market close

Many Worlds

Copenhagen

Other

Orchestrated Objective Reduction

Indivisible stochastic processes

Superdeterminism

Spacetime foam

Something derived from Bohmian Mechanics

Local hidden variables + Superdeterminism

"Shut up and calculate"

Something else

53

26

7

6

5

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

5513139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

468

When will Quantum computing become viable?

Dec 4, 6:14 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

25.59%chance

8312789

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2283

995

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

73.66%chance

418427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1672

598

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.31%chance

565620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3083

400

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.82%chance

323407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2327

168

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

32

26

12

12

10

8

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.9%chance

332067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

1101

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.14%chance

211172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

985

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

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