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Rande News

Who will be elected president in 2028?

Apr 24, 1:23 AMNov 3, 12:00 AM

17501303201

OptionProbability

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

No 2028 Election

Josh Shapiro

Jon Ossoff

AI Overlord

Andy Beshear

Tim Walz

Donald Trump Jr

JB Pritzker

Ivanka Trump

Barron Trump

Abigail Spanberger

Ro Khanna

Rahm Emmanuel

Brian Kemp

Michelle Obama

Ron DeSantis

Joe Rogan

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

Ted Cruz

Amy Klobuchar

Kanye West

Hunter Biden

Mike Pence

Raphael Warnock

Jared Polis

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Kelly

Bernie Sanders

Greg Abbott

Nikki Haley

Stacey Abrams

Glenn Youngkin

Elizabeth Warren

Cory Booker

Roy Cooper

Tim Scott

Mitch Landrieu

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Ruben Gallego

Katie Porter

Joe Biden

Tucker Carlson

Ration L. Ussy

Wes Moore

Mark Cuban

RFK Jr.

Tetraspace

Lina Khan

Shawn Fain

Elon Musk

Ritchie Torres

Taylor Swift

Barack Obama

Chris Murphy

Stephen A. Smith

Mickey Mouse

Laura Loomer

Sam Altman

John Fetterman

Tulsi Gabbard

Al Gore

Kathy Hochul

[deleted]

Josh Hawley

Ezra Klein

Tim Kaine

invalid

David McCormick

Andrew Yang

Anna Paulina Luna

Amaryllis Fox

Duplicate - Will Resolve No

Mike Johnson

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Jamie Dimon

Abrego Garcia

Andrew Cuomo

Chris Van Hollen

Invalid

invalid

Deval Patrick

Jasmine Crockett

Oprah Winfrey

Sheldon Whitehouse

Robert Prevost

Harambe

Josh Stein

Jeff Jackson

Rand Paul

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elissa Slotkin

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.59%chance

472396309

OptionVotes

YES

3236

1913

🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 24, 7:07 PMDec 28, 4:59 AM

302298061

OptionProbability

Adolf Hitler

George Santos

Benito Mussolini

Vladimir Putin

Joseph Stalin

Kanye West

Kim Jong-un

Derek Chauvin

Xi Jinping

Jeffrey Epstein

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Dan Schneider

David Duke

Tucker Carlson

Mao Zedong

Viktor Orbán

Genghis Khan

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Thanos

Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars

Dolores Umbridge

Nero (Roman emperor)

Bill Cipher

Curtis Yarvin

Nick Land

Shaun King

Caligula

King Leopold II of Belgium

Negan Smith

Alex Jones

Augusto Pinochet

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

A paperclip-maximizing AGI

Lauren Boebert

Pennywise, the clown from “It”

Vlad the Impaler

Saddam Hussein

Commodus

Cthulhu

Hirohito

Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan

Joffrey Baratheon

Sauron

Hong Xiuquan

SCP-682

Uday Hussein

Nicolas Maduro

Jabba the Hutt

Kyle Rittenhouse

Lee Harvey Oswald

Robert Edward Lee

Pol Pot

The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)

Anders Breivik

Voldemort

Chris Benoit

Rush Limbaugh

Gannondorf

Bobby Fischer

Charles Manson

The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II

Jair Bolsonaro

Drake

Hugo Chavez

Chris Chan

Phillipe Petain

A random convicted murderer

Andrew Tate

A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well

Cersei Lannister

Dylan Klebold

Trump's attempted assassin

A severe case of ulcerative colitis

A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president

Donald Trump

Kang and/or Kodos

Satan

A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants

Albert Speer

Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

Steve Bannon

Josh Hawley

A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life

Ron Unz

Ivan the terrible

Otto Skorzeny

Karl Donitz

Christoper Rufo

John Hinckley Jr.

The Loc-Nar

The Grim Reaper

Charles "Chuck" Johnson

Pat Buchanan

A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

Whatifalthist

Franz von Papen

A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person

Erich von Manstein

Nikita Khrushchev

Judas Iscariot

Lyndon LaRouche

Joseph McCarthy

The CEO of MALIBAL

Erich Ludendorff

Roko

Mark Foley

Andronikos II Palaiologos

Liu Shan

Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson

Godzilla

Hasan Piker / Hasanabi

Unabomber

Sima Zhong

LEROY JENKINS

CHELSEA VOSS

Laria Reynolds

Ornlu the Wolf

Jozef Tiso

Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)

A cockroach

Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho

Alfred Packer

Brent Dill

Steve Sailer

Erwin Rommel

Gongsun Yuan

Hasso von Manteuffel

King John

EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD

qin shi huang

Shang Yang

Richard Lynn

James Longstreet

Niko Bellic

Hunter Biden's laptop

The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering

Commodus

Paul Von Hindenburg

Tito

Thomas Midgley Jr.

an asi agent from openai

Vriska Serket

Yuan Shu

Miklos Horthy

Franz Joseph 1

WILLY ON WHEELS

J. Philippe Rushton

Lu Bu

Yuan Shikai

Juan Peron

Connor Duffy

Faust

Charles XII of Sweden

Zhou Enlai

Samuel Alito

@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)

Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)

Giego Caleiro

Fredrick Robert Brennan

Mehmed V

Black Hat (XKCD)

Jeremy Nixon

Charles Murray

Paul Ehrlich

Michael de Santa

anatoly karlin

Jonathan Anomaly

Alexey Guzey

King George III of England

Yuan Shao

Jar Jar Binks

Peter Thiel

Liang Mong-song

Lucy Guo

Klaus Schwab

Karl Marx

Stephen Hsu

James Buchanan

A literal ham sandwich

A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America

Rochelle Shen

JD Vance

Emperor Ling of Han

Ada Nguyen

Sean Hannity

Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe

Salvador Allende

James Dewey Watson

Laura Gao

Claire Wang

Eren Yeager

@ButtocksCocktoasten

Jiang Zemin

Rorschach

Wario

goth600

Any child of Trump (randomly selected)

Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger

Elagabalus

Lex Luthor

A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President

Light Yagami

A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape

Neville Chamberlain

Bad Bunny

Rod Blagojevich

Brian Chau (@psychosort)

Chris Brown

Richard Watterson (from Gumball)

Hans Niemann

Silvio Berlusconi

Timothy Leary

John Edwards

George Floyd

Hunter Biden

Razib Khan

Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)

A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US

Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)

Kim Dotcom

Waluigi

Deng Xiaoping

Empress Dowager Cixi

Brian Tomasik

Your mom

THEAMAZINGATHEIST

Richard Hanania

A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma

Chuck Norris

You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)

Stan Smith

Ray Shaun Elussy

Lucille Bluth

Michael Vassar

An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Santa Claus

Kristi Noem's dog

Moses (Bible)

Yourself right now

Justin Trudeau

Elizabeth Holmes

Eminem

A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma

Futarchy (Manifold users)

Nicky Case

Robespierre

Yourself from 15 years ago

Greta Thunberg

Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony

@strutheo :)

Bill Gates

Gavin Newsom

Hillary Clinton

Walter White

Chat GPT

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Destiny

George Soros

Bill Cosby

Ellen DeGeneres

Harvey Weinstein

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

A can of beans

George W. Bush

Richard Nixon

Jeremy Corbyn

Joe Biden

Julius Caesar

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Yasser Arafat

Shinzo Abe

Gus Fring

Frank Underwood

Mr Burns

Mr Krabs

Peter Griffin

Homer Simpson

Hank Hill

Cruella De Vil

Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)

Ibram X. Kendi

Rachel Dolezal

Nayib Bukele

Ayn Rand

Barack Obama

Young Sheldon

Tony Soprano

Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)

Dr Robotnik / Eggman

Vivek Ramaswamy

Taylor Swift

Joe Rogan

Javier Milei

Emmanuel Macron

Doctor Manhattan

Bill Clinton

Donkey Kong

Rudy Giuliani

An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Sam Bankman-Fried

Cedric the Entertainer

Glenn Quagmire

Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)

Gollum/Smeagol

Matthew Yglesias

Vaush

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

Donald Trump Jr

Napoleon Bonaparte

Jordan Peterson

Scar (lion king)

Margaret Thatcher

Andrew Johnson

Bill Ackman

Bernie Madoff

Jussie Smollet

Avon Barksdale

Yann Lecun

The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party

Elon Musk

Paul Atreides

Cenk Uygur

Georgia Meloni

Boris Johnson

Trump from the 80s-90s

Shirley Temple

Mark Rutte

Michael Jackson

James (manifold)

Austin (manifold)

George Washington

Zaphod Beeblebrox

Mr Garrison (South Park)

Lee Pace

Muhammad the prophet

Jose Luis Ricon

BasedBeffJezos

Mike Pence

Nate Silver

Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)

Confucius

hari seldon

Teddy Roosevelt

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Angela Merkel

Jacinda Ardern

shaq

elvis

random manifold user

abe lincoln

bruce springsteen

billy joel

Rishi Sunak

Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform

buddha

satoshi nakamoto

A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times

100

Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

Mar 27, 1:20 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

372127432

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Josh Shapiro

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Pete Buttigieg

J. B. Pritzker

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Hawley

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Glenn Youngkin

Jon Ossoff

Jeff Jackson

Ron DeSantis

Wes Moore

Andy Beshear

Nikki Haley

Elise Stefanik

Cory Booker

Spencer Cox

Donald Trump Jr.

Brian Kemp

Amy Klobuchar

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

Tammy Duckworth

Chris Sununu

Katie Hobbs

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Mark Cuban

Vivek Ramaswamy

Ted Cruz

Kristi Noem

Raphael Warnock

Jared Polis

Tom Cotton

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Catherine Cortez Masto

Tammy Baldwin

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Kevin Stitt

Tate Reeves

Tim Walz

Ivanka Trump

Stephen Miller

Erika Kirk

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Tim Scott

Joe Rogan

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Andrew Yang

Beto O'Rourke

Mark Kelly

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Ruben Gallego

David Hogg

Kamala Harris

Will Hurd

Tulsi Gabbard

Dan Crenshaw

John Fetterman

Mark Zuckerberg

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Maura Healey

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Tucker Carlson

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Ezra Klein

Mike Pence

Mitt Romney

Stephen Colbert

Joe Manchin

Al Gore

DUPLICATE

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Sam Altman

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Sarah Palin

Jon Stewart

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Krantz (the user @Krantz)

Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?

Mar 25, 2:30 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM

12416032

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

Ted Cruz

Tucker Carlson

Pete Hegseth

Brian Kemp

Josh Hawley

Doug Burgum

Will Hurd

Donald Trump Jr.

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tom Cotton

Rick Scott

Todd Young

Joni Ernst

Markwayne Mullin

Chris Sununu

Elise Stefanik

Vivek Ramaswamy

Franciz Suarez

Mike Johnson

Greg Abbott

Byron Donalds

Chris Christie

Rand Paul

Kristi Noem

Mike Lee

Kim Reynolds

Dan Crenshaw

Katie Britt

Tim Scott

Mike Pence

Donald Trump

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Mike Pompeo

Tulsi Gabbard

Liz Cheney

Matt Gaetz

Who will be on the winning U.S. presidential ticket (President + VP) in 2028?

Aug 1, 1:59 AMNov 8, 4:59 AM

388457

OptionProbability

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

JB Pritzker

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff

Ron DeSantis

Tom Cotton

Elise Stefanik

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio

Josh Shapiro

Gretchen Whitmer

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Cory Booker

Mark Kelly

Ruben Gallego

Andy Beshear

Tim Scott

Kristi Noem

Raphael Warnock

Doug Burgum

Amy Klobuchar

Roy Cooper

Vivek Ramaswamy

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Ro Khanna

Donald J. Trump

Josh Hawley

Vivek Ramaswami

Tim Walz

Brian Kemp

Nikki Haley

Jared Polis

Kamala Harris

Mark Cuban

Tucker Carlson

Jasmine Crockett

Ted Cruz

Jon Stewart

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Ritchie Torres

Elizabeth Warren

Tulsi Gabbard

Andrew Yang

Donald Trump Jr.

Gina Raimondo

Rand Paul

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Kirsten Gillibrand

Josh Green

Michelle Obama

No 2028 Election

Rahm Emanuel

Bernie Sanders

Oprah Winfrey

Barack Obama

John Fetterman

Stephen A. Smith

Will Rand Paul ever be elected President?

Jan 13, 8:27 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7%chance

161798

OptionVotes

YES

958

874

Who is involved in the Russian influencer scheme (Doppelganger / Good Old USA), according to court documents?

Sep 7, 5:01 AMJul 1, 5:59 AM

5685

OptionProbability

Jill Stein

Tom Cotton

Ron Johnson

Nick Fuentes

Glenn Greenwald

Kari Lake

Ian Miles Cheong

Bret Weinstein

Lauren Boebert

Eric Weinstein

Jack Posobiec

Rand Paul

Lex Fridman

Donald Trump

Who will be US President after Joe Biden's successor?

Jan 1, 9:40 PMJan 1, 12:12 PM

20660

OptionProbability

Other

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsome

Marco Rubio

Gretchen Whitmer

Pete Buttigieg

Raphael Warnock

Mark Kelly

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Nobody

Joe Biden

Cory Booker

Andrew Yang

Chris Sununu

Larry Hogan

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Tim Scott

Greg Abbott

Mike Pence

Ted Cruz

Kristi Noem

Josh Hawley

Stacey Abrams

Ayanna Pressley

Jared Polis

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Elizabeth Warren

Amy Klobuchar

Antony Blinken

Kirsten Gillibrand

Michael Bennet

Deval Patrick

Beto O'Rourke

Eric Adams

Bill de Blasio

Steve Bullock

Julián Castro

Bernie Sanders

Liz Cheney

Michelle Obama

Andy Beshear

Roy Cooper

Ro Khanna

Gina Raimondo

Mitt Romney

Tom Cotton

Rand Paul

Chris Christie

Tammy Duckworth

Who will be the 50th US President?

Jan 2, 11:11 PMNov 14, 12:12 PM

12422

OptionProbability

Other

Ayanna Pressley

Gavin Newsom

Nobody

Pete Buttigieg

Raphael Warnock

Marco Rubio

Hakeem Jeffries

Rand Paul

Jackson Hinkle

Ron Desantis

Jared Polis

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Beto O'Rourke

Stacey Abrams

Somebody not mentioned at closing time

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Elizabeth Warren

Ted Cruz

Nikki Haley

Eric Garcetti

Mike Pence

Tammy Duckworth

Who during, the next Congress, will call on the next Senate to eliminate or limit the filibuster? [Add Answers]

Nov 13, 12:11 AMJan 4, 4:59 AM

2393

OptionProbability

Donald Trump

JD Vance

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Dave McCormick

Rick Scott

Josh Hawley

John Thune

John Cornyn

Rand Paul

Lindsey Graham

Will Rand Paul's National Right To Work bill pass & become law before 2026?

Feb 16, 12:24 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.61%chance

385

OptionVotes

YES

185