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Prediction markets for Raz

Will Razib Khan OR Cremieux be mentioned in a South park episode by 2030?

Jul 8, 11:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.06%chance

6220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will razib Khan become a comedian

Nov 25, 4:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31%chance

473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Convincing 30 second video of Jose Luis Ricon and Razib Khan sumo-wrestling by EOY2027

Feb 1, 8:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.93%chance

566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

Will >50% of Razib Khan+Chelsea Voss gene pairings have a IQ PRS score of > +2.18 by Savage et al. 2018 study SNPs?

Feb 2, 12:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48%chance

244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Exit valuation of Raz (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

59

14

14

14

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Does Jose Luis Ricon have wider head circumference than razib khan

Mar 3, 9:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Razib Khan recieve the Presidential Medal of Freedom by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:57 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will Razib Khan attend vibecamp 2025 or 2026?

May 17, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will janus/repligate, Rona Wang, Razib Khan, Ava Huang, Stephen Hsu, and Ben Yu ALL traverse the Oregon Trail by 2090?

Dec 2, 1:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will Stephen Hsu OR razib Khan become sperm donor by 2027

Jun 12, 2:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

How much % of vote will Razem get in the 2027 Polish parlimentary election?

Jun 9, 5:16 PMNov 15, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

<3%

3% - 4%

4% - 5%

5% - 6%

6% - 7%

7% - 8%

>8%

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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