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Prediction markets for Reis

Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?

Aug 11, 9:50 PMAug 31, 4:59 AM

1.31%chance

7452364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8693

115

Which UFC fighters will both remain undefeated and stay on the UFC roster through 2025?

Jun 17, 2:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

2422451

OptionProbability

Ilia Topuria

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev

Malcolm Wellmaker

Jacobe Smith

Azamat Murzakanov

Navajo Stirling

Michael Morales

Andre Lima

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60

51

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50

50

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39

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1

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Will King Charles III of England's reign be long enough for the development of AGI?

Sep 8, 6:44 PMSep 16, 6:59 AM

10.94%chance

645108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2107

738

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70%chance

384167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1622

419

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.99%chance

133976

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YES

NO

1425

702

How Long will King Charles reign?

May 7, 7:10 AMMay 7, 8:59 PM

16.52%chance

333367

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1629

773

Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?

Jul 8, 12:38 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

12.37%chance

131184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

888

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

32.44%chance

121057

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NO

1446

696

Will exoskeleton hiking pants be available to purchase from REI before June 2027?

Apr 25, 5:07 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

28.73%chance

8842

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YES

NO

1575

635

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

Sep 16, 9:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

15490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

906

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

Will Trump reinstate de minimus before August 29?

Aug 2, 7:37 PMAug 29, 11:59 PM

49.71%chance

216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

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