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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

455324619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2764

2317

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

Will a tech company buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?

Jun 5, 2:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.86%chance

203406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

831

Will Bryan Johnson live to be 100 years old?

Aug 7, 11:43 PMAug 22, 9:59 PM

34%chance

363141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

740

Real person of color exists before 2045?

Jun 10, 5:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

67.87%chance

142018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

688

Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)

Jan 18, 6:19 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20%chance

18821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

931

Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026

Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

35.42%chance

14687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

741

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.73%chance

18421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

942

Will the latest flagship reMarkable tablet and software remain highly customizable through 2025?

Feb 5, 11:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.95%chance

12303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

950

Will a film adaptation of "Remarkably Bright Creatures" by Shelby Van Pelt be released to theaters by the end of 2025?

Apr 14, 2:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.04%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

86

ICE Assistant Chief Counsel James Rodden, "GlomarResponder," leaves role/is fired before December 31, 2025

Feb 19, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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