Render News

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

[option already ruled out] The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

YES

@hmys does not pay back the loan on time

Levi Finkelstein will have not interacted with Manifold for at least a month at the time HMTS's debt is supposed to be paid back.

Levi forgives the debt in a stunning act of grace

@hmys declares bankruptcy, their assets are liquidated, and @levifinkelstein collects their balance, writing off the difference as an acceptable loss

@jim pays off the debt on @hmys' behalf

@hmys breaks Manifold rules to farm mana to pay off their debt (not including incidents before this was submitted)

AGI renders 2 year concerns meaningless

Manifold devalue mana 1000000000000x, making it easy for hmys to buy mana with USD to pay the debt

The full debt is completely paid off on time, leaving Levi almost two billion mana richer

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

An AI injuring or killing someone by accident

AIs taking jobs

An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive

Something porn-related

AIs attempting to covertly control or influence people or entities

An AI injuring or killing someone because it was told to

An AI not being sufficiently woke

An AI injuring or killing someone because it decided to

An AI escaping from safety confinement (an "AI box")

An AI created with malevolent goals, like ChaosGPT, becoming competent

An AI that devotes excessive amounts of resources to its goal, such as manufacturing paperclips

An AI that resists being switched off or destroyed

An AI that rewrites its own top-level goals

An AI that makes scientific advancements

Never.

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

Will release in at least one country by EOY 2024

Will cost at least USD $499 (or equivalent)

Will have ~28% increase in system memory over base PS5

PSSR implemented

Ray-tracing 2-4x better

Graphics rendered ~45% faster

Dedicated “AI Accelerator” included

“Detachable” Disc Drive

Games will release that have a “PS5 Pro Enhanced” label (or similar)

Will have a ~10% faster CPU

I will buy one (I have a base PS5 currently)

YES

Wilful killing

Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;

Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;

Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would...

Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;

Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;

Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict...

Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;

Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;

Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, ...

Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;

Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;

Employing poison or poisoned weapons;

Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;

Taking of hostages.

Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;

Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;

Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;

Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military...

Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;

Declaring that no quarter will be given;

Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal...

Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;

Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;

The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or ...

Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor ...

Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;

Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;

Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;

NO

no

yes

Raytracing