Revee News

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

127565977

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3769258

OptionProbability

>$25B

$20.1-25B

$17.6-20B

$15.1-17.5B

<$5B

$5-10B

$10.1-12.5B

$12.6-15B

Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025?

Jan 12, 7:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

99%chance

11644849

OptionVotes

YES

14494

484

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.75%chance

15119264

OptionVotes

YES

1600

1594

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Dec 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

15516604

OptionVotes

YES

3865

859

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Sep 4, 7:49 AMMay 1, 5:59 AM

3116548

OptionProbability

Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates

Other

No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)

Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights

Yes, the Red-Haired Pirates ARE the holy knights

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

1.83%chance

5211172

OptionVotes

YES

2075

932

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Apr 24, 11:26 PMApr 24, 11:20 PM

31.4%chance

187419

OptionVotes

YES

14782

6765

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

594589

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Dec 18, 2:07 PMNov 30, 12:00 PM

38.73%chance

192588

OptionVotes

YES

2888

1965

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Jan 27, 7:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.58%chance

371178

OptionVotes

YES

2083

1816

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

YES

4071

3711

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Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025?

Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025?

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?

Will the Red-Haired Pirates be revealed to be the Holy Knights all along?

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

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