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Top stories

US Gov Appointments

Donald Trump Orders Removal of Vinay Prasad from FDA Amid Pharma Lobbying and Criticism by Laura Loomer

Authors

3

4 days ago

Prediction markets for RFK Jr

RFK Jr stock

Apr 9, 8:25 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

3754083

OptionProbability

YES

NO

590

574

Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2026?

Nov 11, 2:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

92.45%chance

3014099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3500

286

Will RFK Jr. be the Secretary Health and Human Services at the start of 2026?

Nov 14, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.73%chance

6411439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1633

612

Will There Be a Successful Assassination of RFK Jr. Before December 31, 2026?

Feb 6, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

296269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

957

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

42775

OptionProbability

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

Below 94%

28

27

18

14

13

Assuming RFK Jr. endorses Trump, will he remain married to Cheryl Hines?

Aug 23, 6:34 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

95.52%chance

161857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

462

22

Did RFK Jr father RFK III (or a child with any name) while campaigning for president?

Oct 5, 2:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.94%chance

121651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1427

42

Will any of RFK JR's family members get sick from swimming in sewage tainted water?

May 12, 11:24 PMJan 1, 12:21 AM

8.97%chance

8734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

319

31

Will RFK Jr. be on the ticket in 2028?

Feb 6, 3:16 AMNov 8, 7:59 AM

8.64%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

402

64

Who of RFK Jr. and Jim O'Neill will leave HHS first?

Nov 27, 3:09 AMFeb 1, 3:59 PM

4265

OptionProbability

Jim O'Neill

Neither or Both (both serve the full term or announced the same day)

RFK Jr.

39

31

30

US HHS to recommend against long-term use of antidepressants during RFK Jr.'s term

Mar 6, 7:23 PMFeb 11, 10:59 AM

56.38%chance

7115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will any member of the Kennedy family, other than RFK Jr, run for POTUS between now and the 2036 election?

Apr 6, 9:01 AMNov 4, 12:59 PM

36.14%chance

9110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

228

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