OptionProbability
Andy Burnham
Nigel Farage
Kemi Badenoch
Other
Zack Polanski
Robert Jenrick
Angela Rayner
Rupert Lowe
Jeremy Clarkson
James Cleverly
Richard Tice
Ed Davey
Boris Johnson
Rachel Reeves
Matt Clifford
Ed Miliband
Wes Streeting
Alistair Carns
Keir Starmer
Jeremy Corbyn
Idris Elba
Louise Haigh
Lawrence Newport
Danny Kruger
37
26
11
5
4
3
1
0
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK
Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies
5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way
Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies
The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties
One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party
Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies
3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way
Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party
Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party
100
51
39
32
31
27
18
12
8
Zia Yusuf
Lee Anderson
Suella Braverman
63
6
Party ceases to exist
James McMurdock
21
17
7
2
Chancellor after the next general election is not a member of Reform
Nadhim Zahawi
58
10