OptionProbability
Nigel Farage
Other
Keir Starmer
Robert Jenrick
Kemi Badenoch
Andy Burnham
Angela Rayner
Ed Miliband
Wes Streeting
Matt Clifford
James Cleverly
Rupert Lowe
Zack Polanski
Ed Davey
Boris Johnson
Louise Haigh
Lawrence Newport
Rachel Reeves
Danny Kruger
Jeremy Clarkson
Jeremy Corbyn
Richard Tice
Idris Elba
25
12
11
9
7
5
4
3
2
1
0
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK
5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way
Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies
Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies
The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties
Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies
One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party
3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way
Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party
Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party
100
39
29
24
15
14
Party ceases to exist
Zia Yusuf
Lee Anderson
James McMurdock
52
10
8
Darren Jones
Mel Stride
Pat McFadden
Jonathan Reynolds
Jeremy Hunt
Yvette Cooper
Daisy Cooper
46
Chancellor after the next general election is not a member of Reform
Nadhim Zahawi
62