OptionProbability
Keir Starmer
Nigel Farage
Other
Robert Jenrick
Kemi Badenoch
Angela Rayner
James Cleverly
Jeremy Clarkson
Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson
Richard Tice
Rupert Lowe
Ed Davey
Idris Elba
34
26
19
6
5
4
3
1
0
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK
One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party
5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way
Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies
Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies
The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties
3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way
Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies
Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party
Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party
89
40
38
36
35
28
27
23
Lee Anderson
Party ceases to exist
Zia Yusuf
James McMurdock
54
14
9
7
