Richer News

What will happen with HMYS's ❗Ṁ1.96 BILLION❗ debt to Levi Finkelstein?

Jan 19, 7:13 AMFeb 28, 7:59 AM

2717215

OptionProbability

@hmys does not pay back the loan on time

Levi Finkelstein will have not interacted with Manifold for at least a month at the time HMTS's debt is supposed to be paid back.

Levi forgives the debt in a stunning act of grace

@hmys declares bankruptcy, their assets are liquidated, and @levifinkelstein collects their balance, writing off the difference as an acceptable loss

@jim pays off the debt on @hmys' behalf

@hmys breaks Manifold rules to farm mana to pay off their debt (not including incidents before this was submitted)

AGI renders 2 year concerns meaningless

Manifold devalue mana 1000000000000x, making it easy for hmys to buy mana with USD to pay the debt

The full debt is completely paid off on time, leaving Levi almost two billion mana richer

@Mira waves a wand of debt cancellation, rewriting reality so the debt appears to have never been valid.

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters bet 1000-3000 mana each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Jan 2, 6:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

82.35%chance

285883

OptionVotes

YES

655

Will the future be better? [Pick your choices]

Mar 14, 12:53 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

344903

OptionProbability

Less infants will die

People will live longer

We will be richer

Less people will die in wars

CO2 pollution will slow down

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters have 1000-3000 shares each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Feb 29, 8:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.58%chance

163009

OptionVotes

YES

143

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Oct 29, 11:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4470

OptionProbability

Trump wins, Bezos becomes richer

Trump wins, Bezos becomes poorer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes richer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes poorer

Where will Elon Musk be in 2030?

Dec 29, 5:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12196

OptionProbability

Richer than ever

CEO of multiple companies

Other

CEO of at most 2 companies

Earth

Retired

Dead

Prison

in your mom's bed WOOYEAH

Mars

Bankrupt

Fathering his 90th child

the moon

Will the West still be rich in 100 years (compared to the rest of the world)?

Jan 17, 7:38 AMJan 17, 7:38 AM

73%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

199

152

Conditional on two decabillionaires having a publicized physical fight before 2030, will the richer one win?

Apr 4, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.98%chance

651

OptionVotes

YES

153

128

[Carlini questions] Impact of AI has significantly, and discontinuously, increased the concentration of power or wealth

Mar 24, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

$50 bill lying on the floor of the Grand Central Station.

Aug 11, 8:14 AM

130

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What will happen with HMYS's ❗Ṁ1.96 BILLION❗ debt to Levi Finkelstein?

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters bet 1000-3000 mana each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Will the future be better? [Pick your choices]

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters have 1000-3000 shares each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Where will Elon Musk be in 2030?

Will the West still be rich in 100 years (compared to the rest of the world)?

Conditional on two decabillionaires having a publicized physical fight before 2030, will the richer one win?

[Carlini questions] Impact of AI has significantly, and discontinuously, increased the concentration of power or wealth

$50 bill lying on the floor of the Grand Central Station.

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