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Prediction markets for Richer

Will Elon Musk be the richest man on earth by the end of 2026?

Mar 20, 9:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.81%chance

536939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

669

15

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters bet 1000-3000 mana each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Jan 2, 6:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.04%chance

305923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

527

98

Will the future be better? [Pick your choices]

Mar 14, 12:53 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

344903

OptionProbability

Less infants will die

People will live longer

We will be richer

Less people will die in wars

CO2 pollution will slow down

98

97

94

73

68

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters have 1000-3000 shares each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Feb 29, 8:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.36%chance

183036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

97

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Oct 29, 11:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4470

OptionProbability

Trump wins, Bezos becomes richer

Trump wins, Bezos becomes poorer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes richer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes poorer

77

20

2

1

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38%chance

4239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Where will Elon Musk be in 2030?

Dec 29, 5:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12196

OptionProbability

Richer than ever

CEO of multiple companies

Other

CEO of at most 2 companies

Earth

Retired

Dead

Prison

in your mom's bed WOOYEAH

Mars

Bankrupt

Fathering his 90th child

the moon

54

22

9

5

3

2

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

Will the West still be rich in 100 years (compared to the rest of the world)?

Jan 17, 7:38 AMJan 17, 7:38 AM

73%chance

6107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

152

Conditional on two decabillionaires having a publicized physical fight before 2030, will the richer one win?

Apr 4, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.98%chance

651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

128

[Carlini questions] Impact of AI has significantly, and discontinuously, increased the concentration of power or wealth

Mar 24, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

By 2030

By 2027

69

50

$50 bill lying on the floor of the Grand Central Station.

Aug 11, 8:14 AM

130

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