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OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Premieres in 2027
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Peeves is a reoccurring character
It's woke
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
mandrake root on screen
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Hermione is white
A house elf is shown on screen
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
At least one of the actors is transgender
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Premieres in 2026
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Hermione is black
Zendaya is cast in the show
Hermione is Indian
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Voldemort is a woman
Awkwafina is cast in the show
There will be seven CGI dwarves
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Keir Starmer is in it
Gandalf is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
99
98
97
97
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
91
90
88
84
83
83
83
78
78
74
74
73
68
66
65
65
65
64
63
63
58
55
55
53
52
50
50
45
43
42
41
36
34
34
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
25
25
25
24
23
22
21
20
20
15
14
13
12
11
10
10
9
8
8
8
6
6
6
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
China attacks Taiwan
U.S. Attacked
China invades Taiwan
Not Guilty
Guilty [after June 5, 2024]
Record Broken for Hottest Day on Earth
Government shuts down
Trump impeached
Landmark Decision
War declared
Trump
Gaza
Putin to step down
Woman Walks on the Moon
Election overturned
Griswold Overturned
Xi dead
Swing States
America Under Attack
Russia and Ukraine [or Ukraine and Russia] sign a peace deal
Trillionaire
Ceasefire established in Gaza
Putin killed
Fed announces
On all counts
Trump again
Joe Biden Dead at 83
Trump wins
Trump convicted
Four more years
Haley to suspend campaign
Extraterrestrials Are Real
Artificial Intelligence
Putin is dead
Market Meltdown
Jimmy Carter dies
Madam President
Biden wins
Biden resigns
Biden wins again
Biden's Age is Becoming the Central Issue of the Campaign
Biden Re-elected
Sentenced to
Path to
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
We get an episode of The Snack Zone
An athlete says that any athlete needs to "lock in" **
This season has more than five episodes
Sam says "We are so back" **
An athlete drinks bubble tea
Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned
We see Taipei 101
We see a lighthouse
Sam mentions Choo Choo Chew
Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **
Ben gets drunk (canonically)
An athlete has to answer a riddle
An athlete rides one of Taiwan's branch lines ***
An athlete rides one of Taiwan's light rail lines ****
Someone mentions the Japanese colonial period
Someone mentions the sugar railways
An athlete mentions Xi Jinping
An athlete goes above 1000m in altitude
An athlete says Taiwan Number One
An athlete eats "Small sausage in big sausage"
An athlete rides a bicycle
An athlete travels by boat (A->B)
This season has more than seven episodes
This season has more than six episodes
An athlete eats stinky tofu
An athlete swims
An athlete rides the Alishan Forest Railway
We see Sun Moon Lake
We see Taroko Gorge
An athlete mentions Chiang Kai-shek
At least one athlete fully circumnavigates the island
An athlete mentions "cooked goose" **
Someone mentions Brian McManus
Someone mentions Taiwan's indigenous peoples
Sam mentions Formula One
Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"
Someone eats fondue
Adam wears a wig
We get an episode of Ben's Shower Corner
One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*
An athlete wears a ghillie suit
97
85
70
70
70
66
66
66
64
63
60
55
53
52
52
52
51
47
46
46
44
40
40
37
36
35
34
34
34
34
34
29
25
25
22
20
10
9
8
8
8
OptionProbability
Victor Wembanyama
Chet Holmgren
Evan Mobley
Amen Thompson
Other
Dyson Daniels
49
38
5
4
3
1