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Rivera News

    Prediction markets for Rivera

    Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030

    Mar 5, 10:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    1520790

    OptionProbability

    Can Xue

    Cristina Rivera Garza

    Haruki Murakami

    Mircea Cărtărescu

    Enrique Vila-Matas

    Gerald Murnane

    Anne Carson

    César Aira

    Salman Rushdie

    Amitav Ghosh

    Alexis Wright

    Elena Ferrante

    Jamaica Kincaid

    Michel Houellebecq

    Margaret Atwood

    Thomas Pynchon

    Christian Kracht

    Raul Zurita

    Péter Nádas

    Stephen King

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    31

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    22

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    10

    Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

    Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    262614

    OptionProbability

    Other

    [None - Position will cease to exist]

    Mira Murati

    Elon Musk

    Sam Altman

    Greg Brockman

    Bret Taylor

    Larry Summers

    Adam D'Angelo

    Andrej Karpathy

    Eric Schmidt

    Paul Graham

    Peter Thiel

    Wojciech Zaremba

    Ben Horowitz

    Jessica Livingston

    Marc Benioff

    Sheryl Sandberg

    Tim Cook

    John Doerr

    Reed Hastings

    Fei Fei Lee

    Alexander Wang

    George Hotz

    Brad Lightcap

    Bob Mcgrew

    Peter Welinder

    Jason Kwon

    Mark Chen

    Helen Toner

    Ilya Sutskever

    Emmett Shear

    Dario Amodei

    Satya Nadela

    Jeff Bezos

    Demis Hassabis

    Robin Li

    Clément Delangue

    Lila Ibrahim

    Alex Karp

    Reid Hoffman

    Raquel Urtasun

    Marc Andreessen

    Aidan Gomez

    Sandra Rivera

    Gary Marcus

    Jaime Teevan

    Sundar Pichai

    Jack Clark

    Anna Makanju

    Shane Legg

    Andrew Ng

    Pushmeet Kohli

    Yann LeCun

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Yoshua Bengio

    Hinton

    Marissa Mayer

    Spencer Rascoff

    Garry Tan

    51

    12

    5

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    1

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    1

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Lanterne Rouge Cycling Podcast 2026 Hot Takes Megamarket

    Nov 15, 6:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    72242

    OptionProbability

    [Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories

    [Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)

    [UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories

    [FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026

    [Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races

    [UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race

    [Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026

    [Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France

    [Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC

    [Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories

    [Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC

    [Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit

    [Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey

    [UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments

    [Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours

    [Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic

    [Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race

    [Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel

    [Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories

    [Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages

    [Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season

    [Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026

    [Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026

    [Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC

    [NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race

    [Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours

    [Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC

    [Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points

    [Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage

    [Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument

    [Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia

    [Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem

    [Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia

    [Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix

    [Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia

    [NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

    [Visma] Matthew Brennan wins Milan-San Remo

    90

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    55

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    How many strikeouts will Shohei Ohtani get over his career in the MLB?

    Feb 19, 3:12 AMFeb 18, 1:29 PM
    11459

    OptionProbability

    At least 720 strikeouts (how many Daisuke Matsuzaka got)

    At least 800 strikeouts

    At least 934 strikeouts (how many Hyun Jin Ryu got)

    At least 1000 strikeouts

    At least 1100 strikeouts

    At least 1173 strikeouts (how many Mariano Rivera got)

    At least 1300 strikeouts

    At least 1400 strikeouts

    At least 1500 strikeouts

    At least 1600 strikeouts

    At least 1715 strikeouts (how many Chan Ho Park got)

    At least 1918 strikeouts (how many Hideo Nomo got)

    At least 2074 strikeouts (how many Fernando Valenzuela got)

    At least 2245 strikeouts (how many Tommy John got)

    At least 2535 strikeouts (how many Bartolo Colon got)

    At least 2803 strikeouts (how many Cy Young got)

    90

    90

    55

    55

    52

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    48

    41

    24

    14

    Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

    Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    3135

    OptionProbability

    Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

    Other

    85

    15

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