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Prediction markets for Robin

Robin Stock

May 2, 6:21 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

477187

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1705

637

If Krantz goes on a proper date with Robin Hanson, they will win a Nobel Prize in Economics.

Mar 15, 12:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.88%chance

85445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

841

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.58%chance

255060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1605

784

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3780

1858

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?

Mar 27, 5:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

163766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3597

775

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5.44%chance

63210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4169

240

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

15.85%chance

123093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2304

434

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.07%chance

332946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

922

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2025?

Feb 5, 12:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.33%chance

101601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

552

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

851

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM

38.25%chance

21557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

918

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

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