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Prediction markets for Rounds

Who will make the second round of the 2027 French Presidental Election?

Jun 2, 1:52 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

5629912

OptionProbability

Marine Le Pen

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Edouard Philippe

David Lisnard

Gabriel Attal

Dominique de Villepin

Raphaël Glucksmann

Laurent Wauquiez

Xavier Bertrand

Jordan Bardella

Bruno Retailleau

Christine de Lagarde

Fabien Roussel

Bernard Cazeneuve

François Ruffin

François Hollande

Éric Zemmour

86

49

24

13

9

7

6

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

First Round of Alaska Senate winner?

Oct 31, 8:51 PMNov 8, 10:59 AM

209026

OptionProbability

Mary Peltola

Dan Sullivan (Incumbent)

Other

95

5

0

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.46%chance

287963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3107

597

Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)

Oct 27, 12:23 AMNov 3, 2:00 PM

64061

OptionProbability

At least 10%

At least 12%

At least 14%

At least 18%

At least 20%

At least 22%

At least 24%

At least 26%

At least 16%

94

93

63

9

9

7

6

6

5

Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026? [ROUND 2]

Feb 28, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.31%chance

123445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Will Airbyte ever raise another round of capital?

Jun 14, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

11000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.7%chance

12481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

By when will Waymo or a feature-equivalent competitor deploy into Calgary year-round?

Aug 25, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5256

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2030

2026

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

>2035

2025

26

22

13

9

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

Will "Conceptual Rounding Errors" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 10:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.6%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

841

Will Substack's Community WeFunder Round Live Up To Its Valuation?

Apr 19, 12:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.73%chance

667

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

113

Will Toyota perform a hat trick within the first 3 rounds of the 2027 WRC season?

Oct 19, 8:13 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

52%chance

427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

How far ahead of the registry model will the best entry on ReadoutBench Round 1 be?

Nov 2, 10:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

No entry beats the registry model

Ahead by less than 0.01 Brier

Ahead by 0.01–0.02

Ahead by more than 0.02

25

25

25

25

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