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Prediction markets for Rounds

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

277959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3103

597

Can anyone beat me in the Pokemon Monotype Gauntlet? [Rock vs Fire round]

Jan 16, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.35%chance

13994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4206

238

Will Manifold raise a community round in 2025?

Jan 6, 2:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.4%chance

183758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3302

303

Which candidates will make it to the second round of the Portuguese Presidential elections on 18 Jan 2026?

Nov 1, 8:49 AMJan 17, 11:59 PM

81794

OptionProbability

Gouveia e Melo vs. Marques Mendes

Gouveia e Melo vs. André Ventura

No second round

Other

Gouveia e Melo vs. António José Seguro

Marques Mendes vs. António José Seguro

Marques Mendes vs. André Ventura

António José Seguro vs. André Ventura

32

26

10

8

7

7

7

4

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

201289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

825

Manifold pre-money valuation in the next funding round (in thousands of dollars)

Feb 9, 3:48 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50.72%chance

6410

OptionProbability

NO

YES

717

272

Will any team that drafts a quarterback in the first round of the Draft make the Playoffs in 2025?

Mar 18, 2:49 AMJan 25, 3:59 PM

20.69%chance

10214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Will "Conceptual Rounding Errors" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 10:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.6%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

841

Brazil's 2026 presidential election decided in first round?

Dec 2, 12:15 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

15.17%chance

4141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will Airbyte ever raise another round of capital?

Jun 14, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will any single AI model provider announce a raise >$10B in a single round before June 30, 2026?

Dec 8, 5:47 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Meta

50

50

50

50

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

50

50

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