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Prediction markets for Rounds

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

277959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3103

597

Is Manifold Monitoring the Situation in 2026? [ROUND 2]

Feb 28, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.31%chance

123445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

892

Will I get 10 or more problems correct on the individual rounds at CMIMC 2026 in total?

Mar 5, 3:15 AMMar 28, 10:59 PM

88.52%chance

301430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

278

36

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

201289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

825

Which teams will draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Jan 5, 2:08 PMApr 26, 11:59 PM

9638

OptionProbability

Las Vegas Raiders

Pittsburgh Steelers

New York Jets

Cleveland Browns

Arizona Cardinals

New Orleans Saints

94

36

21

15

6

3

Brazil 2026 Election: Will Lula get more votes than in 2022 (59,563,912) in any round?

Dec 18, 9:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

12393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

How many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Jan 5, 2:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10291

OptionProbability

2

1

3

Other

68

20

9

2

Candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round of Maine dem senate primary?

Dec 21, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2192

OptionProbability

Graham Platner receives 50.00%+ in first round

Janet Mills receives 50.00%+ in first round

No candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

Any other candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

57

28

13

3

Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?

Dec 2, 12:15 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

11.95%chance

4176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will "Conceptual Rounding Errors" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 29, 10:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.6%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

841

2027 French Presidential Election second round: Attal vs Bardella?

Apr 1, 1:31 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

32.16%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will Airbyte ever raise another round of capital?

Jun 14, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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