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Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Gwern Branwen

Satoshi Nakomoto

Robert Caro

Kamala Harris

Jensen Huang

Sarah Paine

Sam Altman

Narendra Modi

JD Vance

roon

Geoffrey Hinton

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Terence Tao

Ilya Sutskever

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Peter Thiel

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

White

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

Is named Tyler Robinson

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Resided in the same state as the incident

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

20-27 years old

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Skinny

ectomorph body type

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Hunter

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Will plead guilty

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Furry

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Strongly opposes zionism

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Will kill again (including suicide)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Fan fiction author

White cis-hetero Christian man

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

Transgender

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Participates in this market

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

psychedelics user

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

has significant student load debt

Had diagnosed mental illness

Is right wing

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Femboy

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

History of illegal drug addiction

White Nationalist

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

History of domestic violence

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Left-handed

Was a student at UVU

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

groyper

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Incel

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Escapes carceral detention

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

Indian national

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Is or was a computer science student

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Has a Manifold account

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

Premieres in 2026

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Malfoy has white blonde hair

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Peeves is a reoccurring character

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

It's woke

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

mandrake root on screen

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

A house elf is shown on screen

Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

It ends on a cliff hanger

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

Dobby makes an appearance

At least one of the actors is transgender

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

Hermione is Indian

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Hermione is white

Features an explicitly transgender character

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting

Premieres in 2027

Zendaya is cast in the show

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Awkwafina is cast in the show

Hermione is black

Voldemort is a woman

Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

There will be seven CGI dwarves

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Keir Starmer is in it

set in 2025

set in the 2020s

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

We get AGI before it premieres

Hagrid is black

Gandalf is black

Adolf Hitler is mentioned

Fred and George have the same actor

HPMOR is referenced

Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)

Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)

Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)

Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)

Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)

Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)

Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)

Drake (Oct 24, 1986)

Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)

Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)

Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)

Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)

Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)

Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)

Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)

Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)

Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)

Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)

Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)

Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)

Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)

Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)

Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)

Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)

Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)

Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)

Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)

Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)

Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)

Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)

Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)

Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)

Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)

Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)

Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)

Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)

Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)

Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)

Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)

Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)

Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)

Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)

Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)

Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)

Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)

Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)

Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)

Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)

Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)

JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)

Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)

Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)

Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)

Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)

Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)

Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)

Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)

Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)

Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)

John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)

Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)

Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)

Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)

Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)

Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)

Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)

Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)

Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)

Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)

Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)

Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)

Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)

Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)

Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)

George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)

Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)

Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)

Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)

Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)

Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)

Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)

Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)

Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)

Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)

Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)

Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)

Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)

Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)

Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)

Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)

Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)

King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)

Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)

Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)

Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)

Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)

Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)

Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)

Bernie Madoff

YES

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO