Rowling News

Resided in the same state as the incident

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

US citizen

White

used a bolt action rifle

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Male

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

20-27 years old

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Skinny

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

ectomorph body type

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

Will plead guilty

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

Is named Tyler Robinson

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Hunter

iphone user

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

disliked Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

Strongly opposes zionism

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Will kill again (including suicide)

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Furry

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Dies in prison

has used the word yiff in written communication

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

has vore kink

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Fan fiction author

White cis-hetero Christian man

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

was prescribed psychiatric medication

Owns a fursuit

Participates in this market

Transgender

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

psychedelics user

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Bluesky account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Current or previous student at University of Utah

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

has significant student load debt

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Is right wing

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Had diagnosed mental illness

Femboy

White Nationalist

Left-handed

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

History of domestic violence

History of illegal drug addiction

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Ex law enforcement

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Had felony conviction previously

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Incel

groyper

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

is Mossad

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Escapes carceral detention

Was a student at UVU

Involved in Effective Altruism

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Has a parent who drives for Uber

Parent

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

decel

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

Indian national

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Is or was a computer science student

Married

Manifold assists with his capture

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Snape is black

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

Premieres in 2026

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Peeves is a reoccurring character

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

A slur is uttered by any character

A wand is visibly placed into, or drawn from, a character's pocket/robes more times than a wand is set down on a table or desk

It's woke

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

mandrake root on screen

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

The total number of times the word 'Harry' is spoken across the season is strictly greater than 3.5 times the number of times the word 'Potter' is spoken

A house elf is shown on screen

Harry Potter is on-screen for at least 4 hours total

More Great Horned Owls appear than Barn Owls

A character who is named Dave or David appears in the show

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

The cumulative screen time of Neville Longbottom's toad, Trevor, is strictly greater than the cumulative screen time of Argus Filch's cat, Mrs. Norris

Season is nominated for Outstanding Drama Series at the Emmys

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

Dobby makes an appearance

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

At least one of the actors is transgender

It ends on a cliff hanger

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting

Hermione is white

Hermione is Indian

Features an explicitly transgender character

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Premieres in 2027

Awkwafina is cast in the show

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

There will be seven CGI dwarves

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Keir Starmer is in it

set in the 2020s

set in 2025

Adolf Hitler is mentioned

Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

We get AGI before it premieres

Voldemort is a woman

Hagrid is black

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

Fred and George have the same actor

HPMOR is referenced

Gandalf is black

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Zendaya is cast in the show

Keir Starmer

Andy Burnham

Nigel Farage

Robert Jenrick

Angela Rayner

Bridget Phillipson

Wes Streeting

Kemi Badenoch

Alistair Carns

John Healey

Jonathan Reynolds

Yvette Cooper

Johnny Mercer

Oliver Dowden

Mark Harper

Victoria Prentis

Tom Tugendhat

Rachel Reeves

Shabana Mahmood

Louise Haigh

Dan Jarvis

Suella Braverman

Mel Stride

David Lammy

Pat McFadden

Peter Kyle

Ian Murray

Lisa Nandy

Emily Thornberry

Priti Patel

James Cleverly

Liz Kendall

Steve Reed

Hilary Benn

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Jeremy Hunt

Ed Milliband

Jess Phillips

Ian Lavery

Daisy Cooper

Penny Mordaunt

Gillian Keegan

Jo Stevens

Clive Lewis

Barry Gardiner

Angela Eagle

David Miliband

Michael Gove

John McDonnell

Stephen Kinnock

Ed Davey

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Thangam Debbonaire

Diane Abbott

Kwasi Kwarteng

Jude Bellingham

JK Rowling

David Tennant

Dominic Cummings

William, Prince of Wales

Piers Morgan

Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)

Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)

Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)

Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)

Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)

Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)

Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)

Drake (Oct 24, 1986)

Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)

Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)

Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)

Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)

Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)

Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)

Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)

Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)

Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)

Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)

Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)

Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)

Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)

Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)

Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)

Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)

Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)

Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)

Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)

Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)

Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)

Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)

Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)

Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)

Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)

Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)

Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)

Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)

Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)

Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)

Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)

Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)

Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)

Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)

Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)

Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)

Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)

Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)

Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)

Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)

Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)

JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)

Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)

Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)

Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)

Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)

Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)

Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)

Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)

Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)

John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)

Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)

Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)

Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)

Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)

Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)

Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)

Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)

Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)

Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)

Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)

Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)

Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)

Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)

Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)

Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)

George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)

Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)

Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)

Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)

Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)

Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)

Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)

Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)

Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)

Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)

Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)

Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)

Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)

Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)

Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)

Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)

Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)

King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)

Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)

Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)

Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)

Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)

Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)

Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)

Bernie Madoff

YES

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO