Rowling News

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Other

Jeff Bezos

Barack Obama

Gwern Branwen

Robert Caro

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

Sam Altman

JD Vance

Mr. Beast

Ilya Sutskever

Jensen Huang

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

roon

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Peter Thiel

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Sarah Paine

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Tim Cook

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

US citizen

Male

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

White

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

20-27 years old

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

Skinny

Is named Tyler Robinson

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Resided in the same state as the incident

ectomorph body type

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Hunter

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Unemployed

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Will plead guilty

Not a virgin

Is left wing

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Furry

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Strongly opposes zionism

Is sentenced to death

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Will kill again (including suicide)

Has ADHD

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Participates in this market

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Had diagnosed mental illness

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

Is right wing

has significant student load debt

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Transgender

groyper

Left-handed

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Incel

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

Premieres in 2027

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Peeves is a reoccurring character

It's woke

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

mandrake root on screen

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

Hermione is white

A house elf is shown on screen

Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

At least one of the actors is transgender

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Dobby makes an appearance

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Premieres in 2026

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Features an explicitly transgender character

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

Hermione is black

Zendaya is cast in the show

Hermione is Indian

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Voldemort is a woman

Awkwafina is cast in the show

There will be seven CGI dwarves

set in 2025

set in the 2020s

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Keir Starmer is in it

Gandalf is black

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

We get AGI before it premieres

Hagrid is black

Fred and George have the same actor

HPMOR is referenced

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)

Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)

Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)

Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)

Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)

Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)

Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)

Drake (Oct 24, 1986)

Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)

Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)

Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)

Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)

Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)

Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)

Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)

Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)

Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)

Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)

Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)

Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)

Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)

Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)

Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)

Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)

Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)

Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)

Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)

Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)

Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)

Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)

Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)

Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)

Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)

Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)

Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)

Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)

Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)

Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)

Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)

Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)

Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)

Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)

Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)

Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)

Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)

Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)

Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)

Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)

Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)

Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)

Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)

Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)

JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)

Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)

Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)

Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)

Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)

Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)

John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)

Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)

Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)

Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)

Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)

Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)

Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)

Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)

Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)

Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)

Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)

Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)

Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)

George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)

Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)

Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)

Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)

Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)

Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)

Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)

Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)

Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)

Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)

Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)

Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)

Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)

Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)

Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)

Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)

Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)

Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)

Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)

Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)

King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)

Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)

Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)

Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)

Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)

Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)

Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)

Bernie Madoff

YES

NO

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO