Russ News

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.17%chance

596256954

OptionVotes

YES

12357

11809

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

677151278

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

39%chance

197129734

OptionVotes

YES

1148

809

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

Nov 10, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.19%chance

527122976

OptionVotes

YES

2507

1638

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

17.86%chance

8447650

OptionVotes

YES

13082

6312

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15847147

OptionVotes

YES

13262

816

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

8416007

OptionProbability

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

100

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.23%chance

3012041

OptionVotes

YES

7723

3690

Will Russ Roberts create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.86%chance

9105

OptionVotes

YES

262

180

$RUSS 🏈

Dec 24, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.2%chance

567

OptionProbability

YES

370

284

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

Russ News

Prediction markets for Russ

Prediction markets for Russ

Prediction markets for Russ

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Will Russ Roberts create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

$RUSS 🏈

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

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