Russ News

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.89%chance

648278766

OptionVotes

YES

18894

12221

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

683152907

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Apr 8, 3:00 AMMay 15, 3:59 AM

36.37%chance

202134643

OptionVotes

YES

1217

767

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

Nov 10, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31%chance

529123226

OptionVotes

YES

2841

1469

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6562202

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Dmitry Medvedev

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

18.6%chance

8948759

OptionVotes

YES

12640

6410

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17%chance

4631623

OptionVotes

YES

221

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.18%chance

4520433

OptionVotes

YES

15090

2183

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

8516055

OptionProbability

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

100

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.05%chance

52982

OptionVotes

YES

3409

1209

Will Russ Roberts create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.86%chance

9105

OptionVotes

YES

262

180

$RUSS 🏈

Dec 24, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.2%chance

567

OptionProbability

YES

370

284

Russ News

Prediction markets for Russ

Prediction markets for Russ

Prediction markets for Russ

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Will Russ Roberts create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

$RUSS 🏈

Latest stories