Russ News

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

546220629

OptionVotes

YES

3224

1483

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

673150609

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

Nov 10, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.62%chance

519121364

OptionVotes

YES

2602

1586

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 1, 6:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96.55%chance

15747127

OptionVotes

YES

13262

816

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

18.58%chance

8245599

OptionVotes

YES

12653

6407

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?

Jun 9, 9:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

20.13%chance

10419959

OptionVotes

YES

2003

505

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

6510537

OptionProbability

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

100

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.25%chance

172722

OptionVotes

YES

7506

3773

Will Russ Roberts create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.86%chance

9105

OptionVotes

YES

262

180

$RUSS 🏈

Dec 24, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.2%chance

567

OptionProbability

YES

370

284

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

Oct 4, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:24 PM

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-31

2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30

2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31

2027-01-01 to 2027-06-30

2027-07-01 to 2027-12-31

No translation is published before 2028

Russ News

Prediction markets for Russ

Prediction markets for Russ

Prediction markets for Russ

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Is a NATO-aligned or anti-Russian entity responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Will Russ Roberts create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

$RUSS 🏈

Russian translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?

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