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Prediction markets for Sam Day

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39%chance

18789917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12054

4408

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.41%chance

13227373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2284

859

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

712

Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...

Nov 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

294576

OptionProbability

Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?

June 31st 2028 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?

June 31st 2027 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?

June 31st 2026 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?

33

23

13

9

7

3

1

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.29%chance

464116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2622

208

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Will >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?

Mar 5, 3:57 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

20.92%chance

9345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

141

Sam Foster wins Marietta, Georgia mayoral election?

Oct 22, 11:35 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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