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Prediction markets for Sam Day

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.58%chance

225118480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12590

3659

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90%chance

13227405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2397

846

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53%chance

818907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

830

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...

Nov 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

304676

OptionProbability

Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?

June 31st 2028 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?

June 31st 2027 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?

June 31st 2026 or earlier?

33

23

11

8

6

0

0

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.48%chance

474616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3122

158

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Will >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?

Mar 5, 3:57 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

20.92%chance

9345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

141

Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?

Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Sam Foster wins Marietta, Georgia mayoral election?

Oct 22, 11:35 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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