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Prediction markets for Sams
OptionVotes
2312
873
Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?
Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
89.41%chance
13227373
OptionVotes
2284
859
Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2025?
Dec 30, 5:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
95.08%chance
4121629
OptionVotes
4398
227
Will Sam Altman receive a significant equity stake in OpenAI? (>= 3% of the company) before end of 2025?
Sep 27, 5:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.75%chance
666432
OptionVotes
1871
391
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
Will Sam Altman still be CEO of OpenAI at the end of 2026?
May 14, 8:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
85.1%chance
374214
OptionVotes
2882
1783
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM
49.22%chance
243307
OptionVotes
10581
9400
OptionProbability
51
12
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?
Sep 17, 6:10 AMDec 19, 4:59 AM
84.33%chance
272338
OptionVotes
2215
512
What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises)
Nov 16, 3:29 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM
48%chance
201863
OptionProbability
1347
750
OptionVotes
1299
353
Will there be a Michael Lewis book centering on OpenAI or Sam Altman?
Aug 8, 7:42 PMAug 9, 3:59 AM
25%chance
10649
OptionVotes
1039
977