OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
New James Bond actor is presented
"The New Norm" ends
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
trump gets hospitalized
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Fair elections in 2028
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Approval < 35%
A new supreme court justice appointed
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Vances have another kid
USA experiences a recession.
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
US Invasion of any North/South American country
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
New
Joe Biden dies
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Dow rises above 65,000
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
US national bitcoin reserve created
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
A major war in Asia occurs
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
New national park created
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Trump gets covid (again)
Trump says a racial slur
Trump visits Africa
Tesla
Trump announces he is tired of winning
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
The department of education gets desolved
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
Trump and Obama shake hands
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Constitutional Amendment
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Record level unemployment
Repeal obamacare
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
JD Vance elected President
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
10% fewer government agencies
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Another pandemic
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
55 or more Republican senate seats
54 or more Republican senate seats
American Manned Lunar Landing
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Starship lands on Mars
Approval < 25%
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Trump dies
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump runs for a third term
Trump is seen shirtless
south park is canceled/discontinued
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump gets shot
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
BTC falls below $38,000
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Cannabis is federally legalized
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump extends his term past 4 years
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
A national ban on gender-affirming care
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Constitutional Amendment
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump bans abortion nationwide
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
"covfefe" posted again
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump is assassinated
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
New US national anthem
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump and Melania divorce
SpaceX is nationalized
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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0
OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
Andrew Tate
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Cersei Lannister
Dylan Klebold
Trump's attempted assassin
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Josh Hawley
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Roko
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Sima Zhong
LEROY JENKINS
CHELSEA VOSS
Laria Reynolds
Ornlu the Wolf
Jozef Tiso
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
A cockroach
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
Niko Bellic
Hunter Biden's laptop
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Commodus
Paul Von Hindenburg
Tito
Thomas Midgley Jr.
an asi agent from openai
Vriska Serket
Yuan Shu
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Mehmed V
Black Hat (XKCD)
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
King George III of England
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
Klaus Schwab
Karl Marx
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
A literal ham sandwich
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Rochelle Shen
JD Vance
Emperor Ling of Han
Ada Nguyen
Sean Hannity
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Salvador Allende
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
Eren Yeager
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Rorschach
Wario
goth600
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Lex Luthor
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
Neville Chamberlain
Bad Bunny
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Stan Smith
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Santa Claus
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Justin Trudeau
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
@strutheo :)
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
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OptionProbability
Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)
Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)
Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)
Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)
Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)
Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)
Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)
Drake (Oct 24, 1986)
Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)
Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)
Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)
Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)
Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)
Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)
Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)
Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)
Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)
Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)
Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)
Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)
Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)
Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)
Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)
Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)
Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)
Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)
Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)
Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)
Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)
Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)
Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)
Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)
Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)
Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)
Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)
Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)
Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)
Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)
Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)
Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)
Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)
Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)
Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)
Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)
Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)
Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)
Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)
John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)
Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)
Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)
JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)
Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)
Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)
Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)
Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)
Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)
Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)
Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)
Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)
Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)
Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)
Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)
Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)
Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)
Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)
Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)
Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)
Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)
Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)
Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)
Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)
Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)
Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)
Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)
Bernie Madoff
James Earl Jones (Jan 17, 1931)
96
92
90
86
86
84
83
77
76
75
75
74
72
71
67
66
66
66
66
64
64
62
61
61
59
59
59
59
56
54
53
52
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
44
44
43
41
38
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
30
30
28
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
19
18
17
17
16
14
12
12
11
11
11
9
8
8
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Clarence Thomas
Samuel Alito
Sonya Sotomayor
John Roberts
Brett Kavanaugh
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Amy Coney Barrett
Elena Kagan
Neil Gorsuch
40
37
11
4
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Clarence Thomas
Samuel Alito
Sonia Sotomayor
John Roberts
Brett Kavanaugh
Amy Coney Barrett
Elena Kagan
Neil Gorsuch
Ketanji Brown Jackson
5
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Clarence Thomas
Samuel Alito
Amy Coney Barrett
Neil Gorsuch
Brett Kavanaugh
John Roberts
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Elena Kagan
Sonia Sotomayor
98
97
39
29
26
11
6
3
1
OptionProbability
Clarence Thomas
Samuel Alito
Sonia Sotomayor
John Roberts
Neil Gorsuch
Brett Kavanaugh
Elena Kagan
Amy Coney Barrett
Ketanji Brown Jackson
A Justice not yet seated
40
36
12
5
2
2
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Clarence Thomas
Samuel Alito
Sonia Sotomayor
John Roberts
Brett Kavanaugh
Elena Kagan
Niel Gorsuch
Amy Coney Barrett
Ketanji Brown Jackson
41
37
12
4
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Amy Coney Barrett
Ketanji Brown Jackson
Neil Gorsuch
Brett Kavanaugh
John Roberts
Elena Kagan
Samuel Alito
Sonia Sotomayor
Clarence Thomas
17
17
14
13
9
9
5
5
4
OptionProbability
Bernie Sanders
Chuck Grassley
Nancy Pelosi
John Roberts
Clarence Thomas
Angus King
Sonya Sotomayor
Kay Ivey
Samuel Alito
Mitch McConnell
Donald Trump
58
46
40
37
34
31
31
31
29
28
15
OptionProbability
No one by close date
Samuel Alito
Other
Sam Harris
Sam Jacobs (TIME)
Sam Reich
Sam Bowman (NYU/Anthropic)
Samuel Lim (Binance)
Sam Trabucco
Samuel L. Jackson
Sam Elliott
55
14
12
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Samuel Alito (age 74 in 2024)
Clarence Thomas (age 76 in 2024)
John Roberts (age 69 in 2024)
Sonia Sotomayor (age 70 in 2024)
33
32
10
4
