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OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Andrew Tate
Dylan Klebold
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
Josh Hawley
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Cersei Lannister
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Trump's attempted assassin
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Roko
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Jozef Tiso
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Thomas Midgley Jr.
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
A cockroach
Niko Bellic
Commodus
Tito
an asi agent from openai
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Vriska Serket
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Yuan Shu
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Paul Von Hindenburg
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Hunter Biden's laptop
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
JD Vance
Karl Marx
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
Mehmed V
Klaus Schwab
Sean Hannity
Rochelle Shen
Black Hat (XKCD)
King George III of England
Ada Nguyen
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Salvador Allende
Rorschach
Wario
A literal ham sandwich
goth600
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
Neville Chamberlain
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Emperor Ling of Han
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
Lex Luthor
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Bad Bunny
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
Eren Yeager
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
Stan Smith
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Justin Trudeau
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Santa Claus
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
@strutheo :)
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
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OptionProbability
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Dead Internet theory
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The CIA killed JFK
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Human didnt evolve from apes
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
China made covid 19 in a lab
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
A cure for cancer has already been found
Princess Diana was assassinated
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Bush did 9/11
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
QAnon
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
China was not genociding Uyghurs
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
96
95
89
87
85
85
80
79
78
76
75
75
73
73
72
72
72
72
71
65
64
64
63
63
62
62
60
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
52
51
50
50
50
47
46
45
45
44
44
41
40
39
39
39
39
39
38
37
37
36
36
34
34
33
33
33
33
32
32
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
28
27
26
25
23
23
23
21
21
21
20
18
18
15
15
14
13
12
11
10
10
10
8
8
7
6
6
6
3
2
2
0
0
OptionProbability
2025-01-16: CORINTHIANS vs RB BRAGANTINO (Paulista - A1)
2025-01-19: VELO CLUBE vs CORINTHIANS (Paulista - A1)
2025-01-22: ÁGUA SANTA vs CORINTHIANS (Paulista - A1)
2025-01-30: CORINTHIANS vs PONTE PRETA (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-01: NOROESTE vs CORINTHIANS (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-04: CORINTHIANS vs NOVORIZONTINO (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-09: SÃO BERNARDO vs CORINTHIANS (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-13: SANTOS vs CORINTHIANS (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-27: UCV vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-02: CORINTHIANS vs MIRASSOL (Paulista - A1)
2025-04-05: CORINTHIANS vs VASCO DA GAMA (Serie A)
2025-04-19: CORINTHIANS vs SPORT RECIFE (Serie A)
2025-03-13: CORINTHIANS vs BARCELONA SC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-13: CORINTHIANS vs BARCELONA SC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-13: CORINTHIANS vs BARCELONA SC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-13: CORINTHIANS vs BARCELONA SC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-13: CORINTHIANS vs BARCELONA SC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-13: CORINTHIANS vs BARCELONA SC (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-09: CORINTHIANS vs SANTOS (Paulista - A1)
2025-03-16: PALMEIRAS vs CORINTHIANS (Paulista - A1)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-24: CORINTHIANS vs RACING MONTEVIDEO (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-01: NOVORIZONTINO vs CORINTHIANS (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-01: NOVORIZONTINO vs CORINTHIANS (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-01: NOVORIZONTINO vs CORINTHIANS (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-10: MIRASSOL vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-05-17: CORINTHIANS vs SANTOS (Serie A)
2025-03-29: CORINTHIANS vs BAHIA (Serie A)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-07: CORINTHIANS vs AMERICA DE CALI (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-15: RACING MONTEVIDEO vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-28: HURACAN vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-05-18: CORINTHIANS vs SANTOS (Serie A)
2025-04-29: NOVORIZONTINO vs CORINTHIANS (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-20: CORINTHIANS vs NOVORIZONTINO (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-25: ATLETICO-MG vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-05-22: CORINTHIANS vs NOVORIZONTINO (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-25: ATLETICO-MG vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-05-22: CORINTHIANS vs NOVORIZONTINO (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-25: ATLETICO-MG vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-05-22: CORINTHIANS vs NOVORIZONTINO (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-25: ATLETICO-MG vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-05-01: NOVORIZONTINO vs CORINTHIANS (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-22: CORINTHIANS vs NOVORIZONTINO (Copa Do Brasil)
2025-05-25: ATLETICO-MG vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-05-03: CORINTHIANS vs INTERNACIONAL (Serie A)
2025-04-26: FLAMENGO vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-27: FLAMENGO vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-01-26: CORINTHIANS vs SAO PAULO (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-06: CORINTHIANS vs PALMEIRAS (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-15: CORINTHIANS vs PORTUGUESA (Paulista - A1)
2025-02-20: CORINTHIANS vs UCV (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-02-23: GUARANI CAMPINAS vs CORINTHIANS (Paulista - A1)
2025-04-12: PALMEIRAS vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-16: CORINTHIANS vs FLUMINENSE (Serie A)
2025-03-05: BARCELONA SC vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-06: BARCELONA SC vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-06: BARCELONA SC vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-06: BARCELONA SC vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-06: BARCELONA SC vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-06: BARCELONA SC vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Libertadores)
2025-03-28: CORINTHIANS vs PALMEIRAS (Paulista - A1)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-03-30: BAHIA vs CORINTHIANS (Serie A)
2025-04-02: CORINTHIANS vs HURACAN (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
2025-04-09: AMERICA DE CALI vs CORINTHIANS (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
56
56
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
37
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity
Rascal Does Not Dream of Santa Claus
DAN DA DAN Season 2
Other
My Dress-Up Darling 2nd Season
The 100 Girlfriends Who Really, Really, Really, Really, Really Love You 2nd Season
Rent-A-Girlfriend 4th Season
Honey Lemon Soda
My Happy Marriage Season 2
23
22
19
17
11
5
1
1
1
OptionProbability
My Dress-Up Darling 2nd Season
The Fragrant Flower Blooms With Dignity
Dr. STONE SCIENCE FUTURE Cour 2
Other
DAN DA DAN Season 2
SPY×FAMILY Season 3
Dr. STONE SCIENCE FUTURE
SAKAMOTO DAYS
Rascal Does Not Dream of Santa Claus
The 100 Girlfriends Who Really, Really, Really, Really, REALLY Love You 2nd Season
WIND BREAKER Season 2
I've Been Killing Slimes for 300 Years and Maxed Out My Level Season 2
12
12
11
11
10
10
8
8
8
5
3
2
OptionProbability
NO
YES
387
284
OptionProbability
Alternative 5 (automated heavy rail under the Santa Monica mountains, underground in the Valley)
Alternative 4 (automated heavy rail under the Santa Monica mountains, aerial in the Valley)
Alternative 6 (driver-operated heavy rail under the Santa Monica mountains, underground in the Valley)
Alternative 1 (aerial monorail along 405)
Alternative 3 (aerial monorail along 405 with partial tunneling)
No build
29
28
15
11
11
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
652
423
OptionVotes
NO
YES
106
77
OptionVotes
NO
YES
104
96