OptionProbability
Fabiano Caruana
Praggnanandhaa R
Hikaru Nakamura
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
Arjun Erigaisi
Alireza Firouzja
Magnus Carlsen
Gukesh D
Wei Yi
Other
Ding Liren
Wesley So
Viswanathan Anand
Sergey Karjakin
Leinier Dominguez Perez
Anish Giri
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
Parham Maghsoodloo
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Quang Liem Le
Levon Aronian
Veselin Topalov
Teimour Radjabov
Vidit Santosh Gujrathi
Vincent Keymer
Yu Yangyi
Alexander Grischuk
Richard Rapport
Vladislav Artemiev
Alexey Sarana
Daniil Dubov
Wang Hao
M. Amin Tabatabaei
N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)
21
14
12
7
7
7
5
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating
#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us
#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels
#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down
#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world
#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion
#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work
#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters
#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after
#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models
#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it
#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk
#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less
#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite
#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI
#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do
#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere
#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion
#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures
#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe
#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers
#176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models
#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment
#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives
#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe
#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child
#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable
#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious
#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption
#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news
#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe
#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals
#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't
45
45
45
45
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
38
38
38
38
37
37
35
35
34
34
34
OptionProbability
Gukesh D
Fabiano Caruana
Praggnanandhaa R
Hikaru Nakamura
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
Arjun Erigaisi
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Ding Liren
Magnus Carlsen
Wei Yi
Anish Giri
Alireza Firouzja
Daniil Dubov
Other
Wesley So
Viswanathan Anand
Sergey Karjakin
Leinier Dominguez Perez
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
Parham Maghsoodloo
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Quang Liem Le
Levon Aronian
Veselin Topalov
Teimour Radjabov
Vidit Santosh Gujrathi
Vincent Keymer
Yu Yangyi
Alexander Grischuk
Richard Rapport
Vladislav Artemiev
Alexey Sarana
Wang Hao
M. Amin Tabatabaei
N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)
50
9
7
6
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0