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Prediction markets for Sato

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7613567

OptionProbability

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Dorian Nakamoto

Paul Le Roux

30

4

3

2

1

1

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMJul 7, 6:59 AM

8811184

OptionProbability

Other

Len Sassaman

Hal Finney

Adam Back

Nick Szabo

An Intelligence Agency

Peter Todd

Satoshi Nakamoto

Dorian Nakamoto

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Curtis Yarvin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Vitalik Buterin

Craig Wright

Wei Dai

[INVALID]

Sinclair Chen

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

43

21

14

6

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

10.57%chance

375756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2909

344

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

235139

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Peter Todd

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

38

27

10

10

8

5

2

1

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Aug 2, 4:39 AMJan 19, 8:14 AM

2.97%chance

444707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3382

766

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.56%chance

553780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

297

Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?

Apr 19, 7:52 AMJan 28, 8:59 PM

37.31%chance

262561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

622

Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?

Jun 15, 11:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.41%chance

241607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

909

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

46.94%chance

291547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

271

Will Satoshi Nakamoto spend any bitcoin before 2035?

Dec 7, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.48%chance

251488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

767

Is Epstein Satoshi, or will Satoshi move BTC in 2026?

Mar 2, 1:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.1%chance

4292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

362

28

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

15250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

946

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