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Prediction markets for Sato

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

489136

OptionProbability

Hal Finney

Paul Le Roux

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Adam Back

Dorian Nakamoto

32

23

10

5

5

2

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Aug 2, 4:39 AMJan 19, 8:14 AM

3.29%chance

444407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3082

776

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMApr 6, 6:59 AM

674192

OptionProbability

Len Sassaman

Hal Finney

Other

Peter Todd

Nick Szabo

An Intelligence Agency

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Adam Back

[INVALID]

Dorian Nakamoto

Vitalik Buterin

Craig Wright

Wei Dai

Sinclair Chen

Satoshi Nakamoto

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

26

25

21

10

4

4

4

3

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.13%chance

412903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

785

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

17.33%chance

181998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2184

458

Who will win MTG Worlds 2025?

Nov 8, 7:16 PMDec 1, 9:59 PM

91691

OptionProbability

Other

Seth Manfield

Javier Dominguez

Marcio Carvalho

Sam Pardee

Ken Yukuhiro

Yoshihiko Ikawa

Matt Nass

Mikko Airaksinen

Keisuke Sato

Kenta Harane

77

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?

Apr 19, 7:52 AMJan 28, 8:59 PM

43.13%chance

211356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1276

715

Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?

Oct 6, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.84%chance

101324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

547

152

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.26%chance

241232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

772

Will the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed by the end of 2025?

Sep 10, 1:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.82%chance

271227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

587

17

Will Satoshi Nakamoto spend any bitcoin before 2035?

Dec 7, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.74%chance

16576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

970

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.21%chance

14235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

949

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