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Prediction markets for Satoshi

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5310934

OptionProbability

Nick Szabo

Paul Le Roux

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Adam Back

Dorian Nakamoto

10

10

5

5

5

1

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMApr 6, 6:59 AM

768703

OptionProbability

Other

Hal Finney

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Satoshi Nakamoto

Peter Todd

Adam Back

Craig Wright

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Dorian Nakamoto

An Intelligence Agency

Curtis Yarvin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Vitalik Buterin

Wei Dai

[INVALID]

Sinclair Chen

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

30

19

15

14

4

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Aug 2, 4:39 AMJan 19, 8:14 AM

2.97%chance

444707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3382

766

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.16%chance

422933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

676

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

10.13%chance

212792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2978

336

Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?

Apr 19, 7:52 AMJan 28, 8:59 PM

42.28%chance

231731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

701

Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?

Jun 15, 11:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.41%chance

241607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

909

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.26%chance

241232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

772

Will Satoshi Nakamoto spend any bitcoin before 2035?

Dec 7, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.32%chance

211044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

907

Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?

Nov 14, 9:08 AMJan 8, 10:59 PM

9.43%chance

12911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

32

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

15250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

946

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15247

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Multiple People

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Craig Wright

55

14

13

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

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