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Prediction markets for Satoshi

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

489146

OptionProbability

Hal Finney

Paul Le Roux

Nick Szabo

Adam Back

Len Sassaman

Dorian Nakamoto

22

13

10

5

4

2

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMApr 6, 6:59 AM

738282

OptionProbability

Other

Hal Finney

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Peter Todd

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Adam Back

Dorian Nakamoto

An Intelligence Agency

Curtis Yarvin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Vitalik Buterin

Craig Wright

Wei Dai

[INVALID]

Sinclair Chen

Satoshi Nakamoto

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

31

25

16

14

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Aug 2, 4:39 AMJan 19, 8:14 AM

3.02%chance

444657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3332

768

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.13%chance

412903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

785

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

16.82%chance

192038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

450

Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?

Apr 19, 7:52 AMJan 28, 8:59 PM

42.28%chance

221631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

701

Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?

Jun 15, 11:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.25%chance

231604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

906

Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?

Oct 6, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.84%chance

101324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

547

152

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.26%chance

241232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

772

Will Satoshi Nakamoto spend any bitcoin before 2035?

Dec 7, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.74%chance

16576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

970

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

15250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

946

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12236

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Multiple People

Craig Wright

60

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

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