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Prediction markets for Satoshi

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

489136

OptionProbability

Hal Finney

Paul Le Roux

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Adam Back

Dorian Nakamoto

22

13

10

5

5

2

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMApr 6, 6:59 AM

715355

OptionProbability

Other

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Peter Todd

Nick Szabo

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Adam Back

Wei Dai

Dorian Nakamoto

An Intelligence Agency

Curtis Yarvin

Vitalik Buterin

Craig Wright

[INVALID]

Sinclair Chen

Satoshi Nakamoto

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

40

27

18

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Aug 2, 4:39 AMJan 19, 8:14 AM

3.02%chance

444657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3332

768

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.13%chance

412903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

785

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

16.82%chance

192038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

450

Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?

Apr 19, 7:52 AMJan 28, 8:59 PM

42.28%chance

221631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

701

Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?

Oct 6, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.84%chance

101324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

547

152

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.26%chance

241232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

772

Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?

Nov 14, 9:08 AMJan 8, 10:59 PM

9.43%chance

12911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

32

Will Satoshi Nakamoto spend any bitcoin before 2035?

Dec 7, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.74%chance

16576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

970

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12236

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Multiple People

Craig Wright

60

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.21%chance

14235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

949

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