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Schmidt News

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38680272

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Masayoshi Son

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

An AGI

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

45

25

7

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

273011

OptionProbability

Other

[None - Position will cease to exist]

Mira Murati

Elon Musk

Greg Brockman

Sam Altman

Bret Taylor

Larry Summers

Adam D'Angelo

Andrej Karpathy

Eric Schmidt

Paul Graham

Peter Thiel

Wojciech Zaremba

Ben Horowitz

Jessica Livingston

Marc Benioff

Sheryl Sandberg

Tim Cook

John Doerr

Reed Hastings

Fei Fei Lee

Alexander Wang

George Hotz

Brad Lightcap

Bob Mcgrew

Peter Welinder

Jason Kwon

Mark Chen

Helen Toner

Ilya Sutskever

Emmett Shear

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadela

Jeff Bezos

Demis Hassabis

Robin Li

Clément Delangue

Lila Ibrahim

Alex Karp

Reid Hoffman

Raquel Urtasun

Marc Andreessen

Aidan Gomez

Sandra Rivera

Gary Marcus

Jaime Teevan

Sundar Pichai

Jack Clark

Anna Makanju

Shane Legg

Andrew Ng

Pushmeet Kohli

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Yoshua Bengio

Hinton

Marissa Mayer

Spencer Rascoff

Garry Tan

52

12

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun?

Aug 6, 8:11 PMJan 1, 9:01 PM

62258

OptionProbability

Niftski

LeKukie

averge11

An old-timer coming out of retirement (let's say just Kosmic, darbian, Saradoc, Somewes, or AndrewG)

Anyone else (critically, including Miniland, Tree_05, etc.)

One of the upstarts (let's say just KingOfJonnyBoy, MW_65536, Aryll, JeremyMKW, or ScratchySpeedrunner)

55

16

9

7

7

6

Who will be the next CEO of Alphabet (Google), after Sundar Pichai?

Jan 24, 12:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22876

OptionProbability

Other

Bret Taylor

Demis Hassabis

Larry Page

Sergey Brin

Elon Musk

Philipp Schindler

Prabhakar Raghavan

Jeff Dean

Thomas Kurian

Sheryl Sandberg

Susan Wojocki

Ruth Porat

JOHN L. HENNESSY

Eric Schmidt

Dave Clark

Nikesh Arora

44

30

8

6

4

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

AI equivalent of IPCC before 2027?

Jan 12, 9:21 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.89%chance

10649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

25

SchmidtSays Stock (Permanent)

Apr 7, 10:05 PMApr 8, 3:59 AM

4484

OptionProbability

YES

NO

85

71

AI equivalent of IPCC before 2030?

Jan 12, 9:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93%chance

8386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

472

36

Will Adam Riess win a second Nobel prize?

Sep 1, 3:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

10290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Axiom Station launches before January 1, 2027 (AI)

Dec 2, 6:23 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

7.95%chance

8288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

29

Will a cure for cancer happen before 2030

Oct 28, 7:32 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

17.09%chance

10164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Which of the Schmidt Sciences astronomy projects will be completed by 2031?

Jan 9, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144

OptionProbability

Argus Array

Deep Synoptic Array

Large Fiber Array Spectroscopic Telescope

Lazuli Space Observatory

72

56

39

24

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